g_j_hook@yah,
what's your target for that trade? that looks like a PB followed by a doji a on your chart.
i am lookin at those last bar highs with problem area at 135.50. This is one i would let run as long as poss. in the hope of the continuing uptrend if price does break those highs. (137.20ish )next stop 139.00???
cheers
jon
EDIT: hey supreme if you stalk price like you got that 2000 post you must be rich by now!!!
[quote=mrsingha;2733244]2000 UP!!!!!!!
Congratulations James. You must be very proud.
A big Thank You to you and all the other main contributors ( you know who you are) who have helped make this thread what it is today.
Steve.[quote]
... now all those newbies (more so than me) have to read 2000 pages just to catch up!! still it will do them a world of good im sure!!
just to keep things in perspective for the newbies who might feel daunted by this task....
when i first started to study trading i had no access to the net and had very little time to hang out in internet cafes.SO....i used to print out 5 YEARS of prices for a stock..open / h/ l /c plus volume.
i would then DRAW BY HAND my charts very precisley with coloured pens, and paper trade the daily bars i had drawn. i would hand draw the daily candle then calculate (without calc) 2 SMAs a macd WITH histogram and stochastics along with volume!!
after paper trading like this with a few different companies(i wasnt aware of fx at this time) reading the whole thread didnt seem so bad!!
so have faith all its well worth the read!!just ask jduester.
cheers and thanx to everyone in this thread. after tying to post on some other threads you see just how rare this one is!!!
jon
g_j_hook@yah,
the only 1 that i ever got correct.
1.3520-50 really seem to be the initial problem area for eur.
it's interesting aud broke down without eur. eur in fact went up when aud was going down. it seems aud is weaker than eur as i suspected earlier. is aud the leader now?
yeah, i was tempted to put an order in above 135 but there is a lot of traffic up there and that first problem area is a little too close and a little too strong looking.charts seem a bit undecided today...the eu/yen looks quite bullish also.....and the eu/aud... lets see what happens
cheers
jon
Got stopped out of my EURAUD trade, had moved my stop to 1.7980 just below round number it had broken, but it spiked down to 1.7860 and took me out, took 140 pips profit though.
Still not in the AUDUSD as my entry is 1.7480.
well done mate! your patience paid off
still trying to nail that begger!! lol
It could be a big mover but my reading of the weekly chart and the big Bullish Bar from last week has me looking for a modest target. This area is the 23 fib and obvious previous resistance could turn support line.
me too.was gonna post the same!!thats how i see it also. target .7350ish
jon
Hello everybody .
Can somebody say which point I need find for right apply Fibo levels on daily chart or when I can read about that. Sometime it easy but sometime I can't decide , for example for GU which points be better on pic 1 , 2 or 3 ?
Thanks so much
Peter
not sure what you are getting at here.
if i dont hit the mark let me know
im sure theres loads a stuff here at ff but if you google it you get tons of hits.
jon
and to the pip almost!!
lol.. if id known you were going to post an explanation i would have left it to you!!
thanx for the PM, im sure i will be wanting MORE MORE MORE!!!!!!
lol. only joking
cheers
jon
it looks a bit worrying at first glance but price has just broke that little double top it made and is retesting the breakline.which ...seems... to be holding out. im inclined to think price is doing what it shoud be doing in some sense. and that is pretty good res it came off, plus the 365 ema on the daily tf. im not giving up on it just yet. time will tell us for sure soon enough though.
cheers
jon
Some breakout patterns on the daily to watch? Im just starting to look at these wonder if there are valid?
this is just my opinion. but i still prefer the lower TL drawn from the dec.low for the gb/chf as the more significant.
regarding the aud/cad i also prefere the longer TLs although the triangle looks better on the 4h chart i think it would be a trendline break rather than a pattern break. a longer term pattern seems to be developing though.
again jus my 2ps worth.
cheers
jon
EDIT:to the best of my knowlage the rising upper TL on the aussie pattern is what makes it a potential rising wedge and bearish.. the gb/chf is a potential triangle and neutral.
EDIT: changed the last chart. after further analysis i have decided it was drawn incorrectly,i think it should be drawn as a potential ascending triangle. (typically a continuation pattern) sos its getting late here in eu.
remember these are not valid untill they are broken
your points are valid ones which were also discussed here at the time if i remember rightly. i think most of us who took the trade waited for a break below 7500 as on my feed at least ,the close of the BEOB was only a few pips above and it would have been nesesary to let the bar break by a few pips, 5-15 is about the norm,to confirm the break as valid.
hope this helps
cheers
jon
I disagree there is a stonger PPZ around 7700, can be clearly seen on daily and weekly. That's why price has created a double top on 4hr and is making lower highs/lows now.
thats true but the 7500 level has a lot of history also. one reason i liked this setup was because the break was also breaking that level.
Quote:
I'm playing the AU off the daily chart, as are most I think as the BEOB was on the daily. There maybe be a weekly move up but daily could move 500 down in a retrace.
good point iv brought my stop to .7625. and dumped a part of the position at a loss this morning at around todays lows.if it does go our way there might be a chance to load up again??
Quote:
That is a rough estimate of the predicted movement off of the weekly double bottom. There is a 50 fibo in that area as well.
lol
actually this is one time it was a reasoned decision, at least for me,my original was only at 7640 to begin with. and as price trade seems,for the moment, to be struggling to get below that 7500 level i thought it would be sensible to scale out of my possition a little
i have no aversion to loosing this trade,no probs.
now if price goes my way it will make up for the loss i took. and if it doesnt i have cut any further losses.
cheers
jon
Price has crossed 7500 recently a few times without much problem, at 7700 its bounced and pivoted and when it crossed it ran. Look at weekly zoomed out.
hehe...
i dont disagree with the level 77 at all. iv said so, after all thats why we are in the trade!! my point is that between there and my target at 74ish there is this 75 level.and as that is where price is atm that is why it is more important to me than the 77 level right now. we would do well to pay attention to these strong PPZs when we are in a trade,each trader in his own way, but to ignore there importance is folly.
the 77 level was tested from below therefore it HAS BEEN broken. it can be broken again. if we take that price as the more important level,and concider that price has reacted to this level and dropped again.which is what has happened. thats not to say a more minor level below that area can not stop the retrace. price doesnt have move down because it has tested this level. it could do many things,consolodation may be one of them.
hope i have got the point i want to make accross.??
sos for the delay im haveing my dinner lol.
cheers
jon
haha I have only played on a course 3 times, just started learning really so I don't even know what a handicap is! But no I suck.
:P
lol...iv yet to try a round, still in the driving range and local footy pitch!.
the only handicap in my game is the person standing too close when i swing the club!!
i plan to measure my game by the amount of balls i loose per hole. hehe
jon
why your chart look different? i thought right after the long BEAR bar, there's another long BEAR bar... hurm???
p/s: Hi James16 and gang. I'm a new guy here, this is my first posting. Hope u guys welcome me. I'm still learning this method. I promise that I won't cause u guys any trouble okay. hehe
hi there Jackhalid, welcome to the thread.
on your chart the label has ym after the pair??i.e. eur/jpyYm ?what does this mean?
is this the futures chart ?
cheers
jon
I hope somebody take this one on EU with H&S and nice PB on H4. I think it can be nice ride south.
Have a good weekend for all.
Peter.
hi peter, this is not a h+s. the neckline should be bearish...meaning it should be sloping the other way, the second shoulder should be smaller than the first,
i was going to comment earlier but these patterns have an of topic theme. if you are trading these patterns profitably then good for you and i take my hat off too you. but for any newbies (more newbie than me) it is a hard slog overcoming an initial miss-informed information base. i feel slightly responsible for these posts as i started the debate about TLs etc so i feel compelled to respond.
out of the last 30 posts containing patterns or TLs very few have been correct!! this is a serious study of price so with many complications so i would advise you all to be very carefull.
i personaly dont play the break of these patterns. the smart play is to play INSIDE the longer TF patterns, i.e sell the 3rd touch of the upper TL/border of a bearish pattern.. IF WE GET GOOD j19 TYPE PA!!.
cheers
jon
today i shorted the eu/us @ 135.79 (reasons not necesary) after two bars, on the 1h chart, i had to leave the house. at this point the price was about 135.60. i left my stop as it was and to be honest i thought i was going to stopped out before i got home,but anyway.i came home only to find that price had gone my way by almost 80 pips and retraced to put me a couple of pips under!!all whilst i was out!! it actually missed my TP by 2PIPS !!!! really. i was kicking most things,hehe( including my guitar for not playing solo!!lol)i then basically i waited to be stopped out,and i was by two pips!! (at 136.14.)before price plunged.!! REALLY. Now check your 1h chart of eu/us !!
you got to get this right guys!! theres many a lesson to be learned there for me but for you all..i just wanted to show how you ve got to be VERY CARFULL HERE!!
cheer
jon
this is a h&s, a classical h&s, so long as the head is higher than either of the shoulders for a top formation, and the price action breakout the neckline. but, don't trust what i am saying here too, take a book to study by yourself. then, you know which version is correct
it seems you are correct,my mistake was believe that an upward lower TL was nesesary but it seems that it is only the most probable senario for price to react as expected. cheers.
jon
Read your statement again and again..... and again.
Then ask yourself one question: Why am I trading, is it for adrenaline rush or because I want to be a successful business owner?
If you had $500,000 on your plate would you leave your house thinking...'G.. I think, i'm gonna get stopped out'... and do nothing..
If you don't stop treating trading like a video game, might as well donate your money to some good charity org. now...
Trading on 1hr, eh....
p.s.
I also shorted fiber last night @ 3632 with...
your absolutley right rac. iv said the same to myself! i did say there were many lessons for me to learn in that post, lol
its not easy taking that view when you trading for pennies. this is a learning experience for me,and i am learning fast( thanx to the good people like yourself),and to be honest i dont mind too much "loaning"the market a few euros if i consider the knowlage i gather will build and protect my future account.
as for the 1h charts..im predominantly an intraday trader and its the TF scale i understand best.
nice one on your trade.
[quote]bundyraider;2737959]That'll happen many many more times. lol
I picked the AU top perfectly, but went to bed without placing orders. Who cares. Next week or so I'll do the same again. I'm not worrying about a trade that could just as easily have been a waste of screen time if I'd stuck around.
I don't even have an EA as Moneybags mentions. It'd be a smart move, but doesn't help with orders on other brokers.
Other options are...
1. Split your order into two or three or whatever separates every time you enter. Allows you to set a TP on your first part. I know exactly where the first trouble spot will be everytime and if I'm going to be away (or asleep ) I'll set that first TP, or if not that, set up an SMS alert for the price level if I feel like watching it. The alert works better for setting BE.[/quote
]Good idea.can you PM me about the sms??cheers. the lack of trailing stop on oanda has been a pain in the butt since the begining!! hehe
Quote:
Check the charts an hour or so before the main session changes. (i.e. an hour before London opens and an hour before U.S. opens and then again around NY lunch time.) Usually the End of Day is next , but things rarely move massively away from gains, from what I experience. If I'm awake I'll check again though.
thats another mistake ,in my book, i am always around for the us open...usually!! doh!!
cheers
jon
Going to be a bit scarce for a while. Just accepted a new contract in Amsterdam starting tomorrow after being out of work for 5 months, so will need to concentrate on that for a while. So no more day trading, which is a shame as i was just getting the hang of it, but will hope to be able to at least trade dailies and weeklies. I will also be continuing my testing in the evenings as soon as i get a laptop.
Thanks to all of you who have helped my learning curve. I reckon this last 5 months will have been the most productive i could have...
hope we here from you from time to time. thanx for your input mate.
p.s. if you ever wanna meet up up in Dam pm me
cheers
jon
I just started the 3month J16 challenge This is the first trade I took, I shorted the pin when it broke to the downside.
I'd like to get some feedback, I believe this was not a A++ setup, but it worked out well. What do you think?
Tyler
hi Tyler, looks good to me, price did what you expected yes??it has broken nice and hard,mabye you will get some follow through??have you still got part of the possition open?? if you zoom out on your weekly chart and add a fib form the big swing up you can see exactly why price stopped where it did.
hope this helps
jon
i cant post a chart right now ,seems to be problems today??
ahha..now i can!!
This could close as a BUllish Outside Bar. We like these at swing Lows and other confluences to support a long trade. There is some fib levels that look to be offering additional support.
hi jarroo,this reminds me of something mike (mbqb11)said to me in a reply to a PM i sent him about setups of this kind.it has stuck in my mind ever since then( thanx!!). one thing he mentioned was the fact that when taking these kinds of setups at a swing high/low then the stop is above the high/low..... ok maybe not his exact words) but it dawned on me that this simple fact could change the whole structure of the set-up...
.... i AINT gonna get stopped out ..UNLESS im wrong
....price can only go my way...and could KEEP going...unless im wromg
....how much more comfortable would this make me feel!!..
..maybe im way off mark here but it jus my 2 pips worth..hehe
cheers jon
This hard break of the BUOB on AUDUSD has just broken my winning streak since february, which mike has told me not to worry about but to put it in my note for the future stuffs.
In hindsight, I didn't really like the AUDUSD BEOB because the high did not exceed the previous bar's highs, which means the BEOB isn't at an extreme swing high, and maybe I should move my stop to the break high of the BUOB when I see it on the daily TFs.
After I read an article on pinbar psychology written by someone (I don't know who), I've been trying to see every setup...
nice post mate..
im far from qualified to offer any advise but if it was me i would try to seperate my emotions from my analysis of the situation. i would also revaluate my mm and see what it dictates??
good luck bro
jon
EDIT: i also took a loss on this trade...we live n learn eh??!! hehe
just been looking back over daily charts, there is NO DOUBT this method works, the trick is to have faith in a decent setup and hold over the longer term. much easier in hindsight though !!
demoing is all very well but I have found when REAL MONEY is on the line things change. you need to behave like a robot and set the stop and limit and walk away, this is the hard part. looking back over charts and saying "could have" made 500 pips is all very well, actually riding your profit for 500 pips is another ball game !
Not sure if gc on the 4h is a valid pin bar, would like advise please.
i actually quite like this setup. i have two feeds and on one it shows a 4h pin and the shows an 8h pin..ish bar.i have a fib confluence @ about 73-7340 which is a lttle way up but i like the location.could be a possible tripple top?? i also have a tl price might respect??
right now im not sure if its gonna breakout or reverse??
jon
And this is almost the same. Divergence 1h+Triple TOp
lol.. i agree, it could be a good place to be long??
i have slight divergence on my 4h chart but nothing to write home about. but i love the location and this pair loves to range
jon
Yes, it's in a good location. Look in the past how the PA reacted. I would like that the daily bar ends in a pinbar. But I don't know how will finish so I put my stop to BE.
Hey g_j, this is the divergence in 1h. I like clear divergence. So. if you see a divergence in a higher TF is more reliable.
yeah i see that now, it is also present in the 4h TF on my rsi.
cheers
jon
It has been a tough month for me trading and I wanted to share some of my experiences.
I started learning about forex last summer. I started my adventure on BabyPips where I was able to learn a lot of basics in a short time. My next step was a quest for the holy grail and I read through many forums on that site. After three months of demo trading, my demo account had a total profit of around 6%. Some of the trades were taken using a system called "Ingot's Rainbow" (that system was actually inspired by a system here at FF called "Multiple Timeframe...
hi PipGator,great post,thanx for sharing. i am also in my first few months of trading live and am experiencing similar issues so i can relate to this. One thing i found that has helped me greatly with dealing with my emotions is to forget about my account!! i no longer try to make money...or %s...it was pretty silly really concidering my acc.size!! now i concentrate only on the chart and trying to improve my trading skills. i think the acc will be just fine when once i get things nailed. my personal issue atm is that im finding it difficult to develope my own trading style and putting it into a solid trading plan. i am trying to filter which setups i will take and the best way to manage them.
trading live is so different to trading demos!! the last 4 of 5 demos i have had all expired at least doubled....my real account?? bouncing around BE just like yours!!conqering the charts seems like a stone compared to the mountain of myself...( i read that ...kind off..somewere
BEWARE!!! hehe
cheers
jon
EDIT: for what its worth i agree completely with Blackinc
XXXX Trader
you seem to be doing just fine to me.
Long USD (Two Positions) @ 1.1445. Take Profit#1 @ 1.1470 and Take Profit #2 @ 1.1536. Reasons for long here are 1. Pin at swing low--2. Pin formed off support @1.1373 and major fib level.--3. Divergence on this four hr chart and daily--4. Room to run north for profit with sane R/R.
I will move second position to BE as soon as I take profit on first.
K.I.S.S.
hi kiss, is that some kind of harmonics indicator you have on your chart??
if so could you post it?
was watching GBPCHF, was expecting a pullback due to the distance from ema (from Alexander Elder) and the PB... But I thought it wud go upto 74 before a retrace... missed the big move... *sigh*
if this had been realtime and I'd gone short at the bottom of the PB, would my order even have been filled? I know, not every trade is mine... but still...
should I have watched out and been aware of the upcoming news, or was I just unlucky?
EDIT: I'm talking about the bar just before the drastic down move, I realize now that my post is a bit rambling...
hi pricey, the pinbar you have indicated is a very poor pinbar ,imho, have a look at the size of the previous bars.. this one is far smaller in comparison.it also has a very short wick/shadow and so for me doesnt show strongs signs of reversal.The close is way up in the bar and it close outside the previous bars o/c. also to echo the sentiments posted today about the trend, price had quite an upward momentum to reverse with only one poor looking pin! in this case the next big down bar is again only mo,just coincidence. you would have been better to pass the trade.
hang in there the "big" move may just be happening!!??
hope this helps
jon
It's a dynamic fibs indicator. It's just a tool not a grail. I'll try to post it. I know that some trade exclusively with it but I just use for confluence. I had to have help putting this indicator on my MT4 as I am a computer idiot. I hope this helps you like it has helped me.
hi yawl, iv just been checking over my au/cad chart and it could be forming a weekly pin. v. nice location at a long term PPZ and the 365 + 200 EMAs with fib con from the last big swing down. daily chart has strong divergence on both rsi and macd with a possible double top formation?? targets seem to speak for themselves.
it was interesting to hear you experienced guys are having similar problems to me.its good to know its not just my inexperience.tough markets these days. wish i was around for the eu/us bull trend,it must have been a bit easier then!!no ..??
__________________ PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
Last edited by g_j_hook@yah, May 22, 2009 5:03am
Reason: typo
You should see how many cool looking pins (etc) I let go by and see fail ( as I suspect they will too), all because we aren't at the final destination yet. I mean ignoring REALLY good PA bars. No kidding.
great post bundy, it highlights some very difficult aspects of trading not often recognised. and i for one find it difficult to impliment in real time.
i particularly like the bit i highlighted in red.EDIT...or tried to!! lol
cheers
jon
hi, i see a lot of new names posting recently. so i thought it might be a good time to post this doc again.for those who havnet yet read the thread this has been posted many times, among others, and is great for reference.the second was posted recently and may help with understanding the pinbars.
A PB is not always the right side of the equation...?
not sure by what you mean here but if it was that easy even i would be rich!!
the pin bar you have indicated formed above strong sup. and when price broke the pin low thats what stopped it. i dont think there were too many suprises. price did give the trader about 70-80 pips to move his/her stop or take profits, so neither did it fail imo.one thing i also noticed is that there was a lot of noise around the bar,bar highs/lows, nor was it at a good swing high.
just my view
cheers
jon
Looks Good g_j_, on the Weekly BEOB Aud/Cad. Let's see if London gives her a hard break.
i was tempted to short it at 88.00 yest. but with the hols n that i refrained. A nice hard break today...Mmmm.. would be nice indeed.86ish seems reasonable for the first stop..200 EMA,365 EMA on the daily TF,and the round no...??then i have 85.5 - 86.(PPZ n 50% fib)
cheers
jon
i don't comment on audcad as i don't trade it live. i do sometimes trade it on demo. in fact, i have been monitoring aud/cad a few days ago but missed a short entry around 0.8850 (via H1 chart, that is). i waited for a shorted which i didn't get into.
now why does that ring a bell??the reason i was looking for an entry there is because of the 87 problem area and i would have liked my stop at BE by then..(..and dare i say it...also 1h chart) lol
Quote:
No charts but.... possibly, we will stay in the 0.86 - 0.89 range for sometime.
0.88 & 0.89 seem to be major roadblocks, all the way back to Aug.2005 (my XTB MT4 only has up to Dec2004 weekly &monthly data). if 0.89 breaks, i think 0.91 - 0.92 is easily on the cards. otherwise, on the downside, i feel 0.82 - 0.8550 is likely in the medium-term.
nice one, i hadnt really thought it out past 85. but i think you just discribed my chart!!..(i just added the 92 level i had failed to draw in.)
Quote:
is that a regular occurence/observation?
wow.... cool...
for oanda the spread on these 2 rarely change. not something for scalping!!
Still looking good g_j_. Although it didn't break very hard it is steady and continious. I'm in at .8768. Stop loss above the .8815.
nice one jarroo...damn holidays!!...dont we get enough weekends!!??hehe
iv got my order just below yesterdays low. momentum seems to be building thats for sure. good luck
jon
EDIT just got triggered @8738.(oandas low of yest.)
Looks like a keeper. I like the 8650ish level as a 1st target. (sorry can't post charts).
agreed its backed up by the 365 EMA on the 4h TF also.
one thing i notice is the bullish div. on the 4h TF, so we might have to endure some retrace??
EDIT: added chart
I agree.I don't get the 138.00 idea either. Maybe Daily 38.2% , But nothing else.
ahha thanx.
Quote:
in my case, 1.38 & 1.3850 were possible supports(based on my doodling). unfortunately, i was not in the trade (again? ). fortunately, my analysis was somehow correct.
that is where i was looking also but still i get 138.5 , this pair loves the .5s
cheers
jon
Its just a round number, no one is saying it will stop exactly at that level on the pip and reverse, no one can predict to the exact pip so we use round numbers as a ball park area.
hi mark, "just a round number" to me is just the same as a guess!! should nt there be more of a reason than that!!??even round numbers will be ignored in favour of horizontal PPZs.Its just that in case ,to me,the round number seems to be hanging in mid air and holds no real significance.?
cheers
I actually said I thought it would retrace to 1.3750 in my initial post, which I think is a S/R area, don't have my chart at the moment.
I would say that round numbers are very important and orders usually build up around them and therefor price reacts. Also price is usually heading towards a round number due to the big players trying to get it there. I wouldn't advise ignoring them over HLine S/R as H/L S/R is subjective depending on what you see as S/R on which time frame etc. Round numbers are objective and always will be.
sorry mate, i didnt explain myself very well...i do understand about the round numbers, and i remember your posts, it wasnt a q. directed at you,its just your post was convenient to raise the issue. the issue i had was that,in this case, it wasnt backed up by anything.and stronger sup. was lying jus below, so i saw/see no reason for price to pause at the round number when a more obvious PPZ was just below???if a round number coincides with a PPZ then i will add extra weight to it. i have found that as with all the levels, confluence is still nesesary.
cheers
jon
hey Jon,
my sentence was more inspirational & more of a compliment rather than a rebuke or insulting remark. So don't take offense, it's far from it.
Read it a 100 times until u get what i really meant
i understood mate.(more or less)it was just an after thought really.no offence taken, in fact iv allready been flattered by some off your posts.
nice one.
jon
p.s. i defere the TL thing to your good self..hehe
it just happens to be one of the very few sports i love!! you know im gonna have that tune in my head for ever !! lol
i was gonna post about the au/cad but youve beaten me to it!! finally into profit, for the second time, lets hope it stays down this time..??
yours must be looking good now with that entry
jon
i see wat u mean hipster, im also aware of it, dats why i intend to take partial profit jst below it and either move to BE fast or set stop loss to -30 , hopefully after partial profit is hit....
thnx , ur comment is definately welcome
cheers
i quite like this..a dblhc/buob engulfing 2 ibs, div. on 4h TF..??
but like you say i would play this very close as it is fighting strong downward momentum and heading into res. if it does break. i have a confluence of 2 fibs just above it and a PPZ just above that stretching back to the end of 2007!
one to be carefull of imo
cheers
jon
1:1 or less, I like to run a 15-20 pip stop with a 25 pip gain. Also I goto cost or close it if it's looking bad or I get +15. Today was 1 stopped @ cost 3 winners so it works just have to be on the ball. Time to get off the computer tonight
hi Ryanmcd, one of the attractions of the lower TFs for me is the possibility of catching the days range(or longer) with a tiny stop,thus giving a great R:R potential. its funny this came up yesterday as i had been trading on the 1m TF on my DEMO, something i havent bothered to do for a while,(yep its GREAT fun bundy)i managed to bag about 80 pips with an initiall stop of 15 pips. once i was 10 in profit i trailed a stop of 10 pips. my question is do you ever look for a runner rather than a hard target??
cheers
jon
p.s. the posts you have made here have imo been rocking,and i will be checking out your others.hope you stick around
egkid,
well, i haven't looked at all charts but my observations:
gbp is very strong; $ is very weak; commodity currencies (like aud, cad, etc) are strong
so in a way, gbp strength + $ weakness + commod. currencies strength = higher eurjpy (jpy crosses in general), but lower eurgbp, & then translating to lower but whipsawing eur$
hi sChaos,..commod.currencies?could you elaborate a little?
cheers.
for what its worth i think its just a case of yen weakness.Whereas the us crosses have had no change???
jon
sure Jon,
here are the commodity currencies: AUD, BRL(Brazilian Real), CAD, MXN (Mexican Peso), and NZD.... (currencies of countries with alleged vast natural resources; why is the Philippines not involved in this group? LOL.... my poor country, probably because we also have the Peso as our currency )
these currencies have benefited during the past few days/weeks amid the $ weakness. or the other way around. More like a chicken & egg story.
I saw another possible setup on USDCAD yesterday. PB from weekly TL that looks strong + 50 fib ret.. The tail is short but location is more important, unfortunately I don have any horizontal level on my chart so I skipped this trade. Do you take trades based on TL , without horizontal S/R confirmation?
alter
i know some can and do trade this way very profitably,(even without any bar confirmation!). check out the igrok method or the posts from belekas,interesting stuff.
cheers
jon
EDIT: i have my TL from a different second low from you.(dont know which is "correct").this is the main problem with TL trading i have found.getting the TLs in real time is a real pain.most people seem to have there own way to draw them making it difficult to be sure of an entry based soley on the TL.
Today I am kicking myself.
I took a trade on UJ, and felt quite happy with my analysis.
I then browsed this forum, and picked up some negative vibes re a psyche number. This gnawed away at my belief structure, and I subsequently closed the trade.
You can guess what happened next.
Long Stick Goes Boom.
hehe...yeah this sucks.
plan your trade and trade your plan....not as easy as it sounds....twice as important as it sounds though.
i recently posted about a trade that missed my TP by 2 pips and then hit my SL by 2 pips and of course immediatly went the other way!!lol . the thing is i had previously decided to put my round number targets at the round no. + 15(it used to 5-10)on this occasion i left it at round no. + 9....price went to round no. + 11 !! i took a loss instead of a 2:1 gain! lol
lesson learned there also.
supremeChaos;]g_j_hook@yah,
were u referring to my trade/s?
i had 1 like that yesterday, with a tight stop. i had several of those in the past years. so, we're on the same boat, i guess.
hehe. i would like to think im finally getting over it? for me its a matter of risk exceptance and having confidence in the setup.i.e. only taking the good ones!! the boat still rocks alot though !!lol
.
Quote:
Like i sometimes say, insulate (yourself) but never isolate (yourself) .
I started looking at doing more of a trail but I ran out of time backtesting. I know that 90% of the runs that work do go 20-25 in todays market, if that range changes then I have to re-adjust. I was playing with going into a trade with 3 positions say 15-25-35 and scale. The good thing about this is it's really 1:1 still but most of the time you will get that +15 out quick. I was also looking at maybe doing a +10-25-35 and front loading the +10 say 2x as much as the 35. This is just something I never really messed with due to making money just...
hey Ryanmcd,just to make sure im getting this right..15-25-35 would be the targets and in total you would still be risking 2%?and i assume you would move the stop along the way??actually if thats correct thats a good way to get some profits fast without messing with the trade.
the +10-25-35 senario would be what..?? say 65% off at +10..
my experience of short TFs is based on the 15min and 1 h charts,(5min is way off limits for my real account!!hehe) and mainly just trading concolidation patterns on 15min charts. after plotting them for a few months i finally decided to record averything on exel..the josh styley,and as attractive as leaving runners looked the data i collected sugested the best wat to trade them was a hard TP at + 50.(stop to BE at +30)with a stop of 15-20 pips. i think at the end off the day trying to ride longer moves with such a tight stop prooves pretty much impossible after a while.( say 20-30 candles max)after all we are basicaly trying to trade the noise. moving the stop wider just evades the whole point.i also toyed with the idea of scaling out but thought that in the end it just cut the R:R( unless the % risk is increased) and that it was better just to play the odds ..in or out..SL or TP. i.e.if +30 is risky but +20 is likely i forget the +30.
so ill say this ...if YOU have any ideas please let ME know..lol.
thanx a lot
jon
EDIT: one idea i am toying with atm is to move the SL to lock in say + 1:1 and let it ride while widening the stop ??could get lucky??hehe
Daily on EU looks to be cooking a BUOB if we close above 1.4000 today. I was/am still thinking we will see 1.3750.. Maybe a big drop on friday, right now I am flat though.
yeah, nice one i hadnt looked at the daily. i agree a close above 140 would be lovely.it is looking likely?
cheers
jon
WHOOHOOOOOOO!!%#$@
oanda has a trailing stop!!!! YEEESSSSSS!!!!
about bloody time!
just a note to those looking to short the gb/chf...this is just my observation but a strong gb usually will hold the gb/chf up a bit.
jon
I just want to share my trading result since using James16 Method. It's a small account, but Im very happy of it. No indicator involved in this trading mission. LOL
aLLerGic of Studying
IMPRESSIVE !!
congrats
jon
EDIT: hey aLLerGic, iv just noticed that you have a lot of small wins which met there targets??e.g. eu/yen short at 132.31 TP @ 132.20. is this smaller TFs? or not letting them run too much? i was just thinking your results look like they could have provided much better returns??
cheers
Hi g_j_hook,
Im using daily Tf to enter and exit. I remember that time, im trying to use the trailing stop, but the result is that.
ahha, yeah it can be tricky. i have found it best not to activate it untill you get into decent profits.?or keep it large enough to absorb the ave range of a few bars,(according to the TF your trading)if this is too far away initially put a hard stop also
nice results non the less. is this your first acc.?
lol, i have blow 3 account so far and now im back to demo. Now i dont want to fund it. Remember james16 minimum requirement?? 3 - 6 months in demo than will go to step 2.
lol..
im sure he will be the first to agree, thats a MINIMUM requirement
you must be doing something right though mate.
good luck.
jon
Morning everyone. For those of you who PM'd me to wish me good luck going live, I told you I'd keep you posted as I go. Well, here's my first trade so far. I actually didn't expect it to get quite this far but kept with it and managed it along the way.
A 3 part trade with 1/3 profit taken at each check mark. The top check mark was to be my final TP point but after seeing this mornings climb, I've decided to stay in and watch what happens. I'm not big on holding over the weekend (too new to this still) but I might just let this one ride if it doesn't...
Fortunately, you and I still have that USDCAD train as our mode of transportation!!
hi Alexandra, was wondering what trigger you used and when you first got on board?? i seem to have just sat and watched this pair falling, ignoring every chance it gave to get in!!??i particularly liked the BEOB on 18/5....still didnt enter though.
i was also wondering what has been your largest stop loss during this trade??
cheers
jon
also jarroo, are you still in this one??them numbers in the pip column must be looking healthy by now!!?? hehe
can i ask if you added to this possition since you entered?? and again how wide has your largest stop been?
cheers
jon
__________________ PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
Last edited by g_j_hook@yah, May 30, 2009 1:10am
Reason: changed chart
I caught all those PBs except for that small one on 4-28-09. And I still in that PB/IB or two Day PB, but its with a very small position, regrettably. (1,400 pips) Took to much off the table. lol Play it too safe.
I haven't added to it but the DBHLC (or BEOB) would have been a perfect place to do it.
cheers.
jon
EDIT:yesterday i played the e/u and the u/c breakouts with my full position untill price hit my trailing stops.(dont know how i will feel about this approach with a large acc. ) now wouldnt that be nice on the u/c chart!! hehe
hey ghous,iv been waiting for one of your charts.lol
keep seeing posts about this trade being spoken about as though its finished!! last weeks bar has hardly retraced let alone broke the top !
it may not work out but its not time to give up yet imo. i got stopped out the other day but i concider it my stupidity not good trading! if it sinks next week ill be gutted!!
just mo hehe
jon
ghous;]Won't you be kicking your own A$$ Jon if it fell Monday open and treated 8700 like an ant via a curious toddler.?
Quote:
I am wondering why you got stopped out John? following it on a lower tf?
errrmmmmm....no?? i did expect a stronger break.... is the only excuse i can give myself
in fact ghous this is one of most recent sillynessess (bet you cant say that after a few beers!!)which has made me reavaluate my approach to trading.
hence the q. about stops etc. i dont know why i even ask, im quite aware were my stops SHOULD be.i just like imprinting those big numbers in my thick scull!hehe i suppose getting lucky a few times kept me pecking away?!? hell if i cant except the risk i should be doing something else!
funny thing is, give me the u/c chart on 15mins and i would have had no probs in the trade management!
i do feel im going forward though and concidering the stats and the fact that my fist acc. is still intact(intact not healthy) after 4-5 months gives me some confidence.couple that with the help and support from the good people on this thread i cant fail to be rich sooner or later! hehehe
(not really interested in being rich.interested in the freedom though!!)
No one wants to discuss this pairs i posted , i thought it could be good opportunities we can catch together ..
anyway
hi alkhatarey, personally speaking there was too many pairs to coment on! im a bit lazy like that.hehe
but for what its worth..
Quote:
GBP/CHF "Has probapility for long " made Dodji on the 150 ema daily chart and good ppz
fisrt thing i notice is that the set up you have outlined here should be a short setup?? the doji was made at a swing high (and on the weekly TF on my feed?.) (and at some serious res.)i have no bias for this pair right now.mabye a long bias after a retrace??
Quote:
USD/CHF is on a trend line now we have to see if will break it or retrace from there looking for pattern
i feel price has broken the trend line since it has closed well below.and price is being propt up by the 61% fib and a PPz at around 1.0650. if this level breaks i dont see much in its way untill 1.04ish. i for 1 will looking to sell any raleighs.
i personally cant get an angle on the yen crosses,..im crap at japanese,my spanish is much better!
hope this helps.
jon
__________________ PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
Last edited by g_j_hook@yah, May 30, 2009 7:18am
Reason: forgot charts!
hehe..seriously, i have no wish for more than i need. my goal is to make what i need with as short a working week as possible!! life is too short.
unfortunatly i happen to have chosen a carrea i love so im sure i will end up spending far more hours on my charts than i do at work!!
Quote:
of course, granted u would continue on with what u do & be increasingly patient & disciplined forever.
unfortunatly i have little of both! lol
cheers
jon
Anybody else looking at the potential Weekly PB on EURGBP? Looks to me like it is at 50 fib, resistance area, possible swing low and should have space to run to at least 0.9000 and if it clears that to .9400-.9500. Friday daily bar was an "undecided" bar so maybe won't break long but if it doesn't, then probably no entry.
I have just changed to Prorealtime charts so hope the upload works.
Am I analyzing this correctly?
hi bjohn,for what its worth, i like the location and the bulish divergence on the daily TF, but i dont like the bar shape.too short a nose and the close is below the previous bars close(in fact it is only just in the shadow). there may well be a reversal/retrace but this bar doesnt show it as obvious to me. There may be a better confirmation bar on the daily TF to get on board??
also look out for the .8850-.8900 level which i have as a PPZ on my chart.
hope this helps
jon
hi yawl...WHOO i can post 1h charts!!?? hehe ur in trouble now!!
Quote:
USD/CHF @ the 61.8 fib and trendline.
hey magic, becarefull with that TL. iv just gone short on the break of a 1h beob after concidering the TL broken??( i hope so now!!)
Quote:
$jpy H1 huge BEOB. Huge H4 BEOB potential??
hi Chaos i was looking at this also.nice hard jarro break.first TP for me is 94.5 at which ill change my stop to BE and put a trailing stop on it.
Quote:
ephisi.. UJ is bearish on GM news but bcos the GJ charts says bullish, GU is countering the effect of UJ.
hi mate just looking at the two daily charts any corrolation seems kaput right now? certainly room for an intraday move opposite to the g/y?(dont do fundies)
cheers
jon
Hook, Sorry - I took the weekend off. This is a true long termer. The original entry was way back on 12/5 on that failure at the top of the triangle. The market went sideways to some extent. I was a bit lucky on that one, as I think many saw the daily pattern as an ascending triangle, which was reasonable. Lately this has been a pure S/R trade. Look at the candles on 4/1 and 4/21. The last leg came on 5/18 at failure of the old support. I could have entered better at certain points along the way (that always happens in hindsight), but overall the...
Alexandra;thanx for your time. and nice trading! its good to know im looking at my charts the right way.that 1.08 level seems to be getting smashed right now!?
Indeed, I see that. Just letting that ride and searching for new opportunities. You were asking about stops earlier - on USDCAD I have moved from intraday to daily and now weekly stops. That way I have little to worry about on the micro level. Take a look at the weekly chart though - it may be rough going in here by tomorrow, although I have the real target down at 1.06.
yeah i see it also, i was gonna mention the 1.06 level!
i like the way youve managed the stop on this.iv had similar ideas about slowley widening the stop as price goes my way. very interesting.thanx for the insight.
jon
p.s could you elaborate about your u/y bullishness?? i see all the yen crosses faceing big levels atm?
pssstt...hi Jay.ill tell you a secret......if boss man james had started here on this thread from day one im sure you could knock a big chunk off that 9 years, your friend has advised you well !!
welcome and good luck, im sure the seniors will treat you well.
jon
USDCAD looks to me like profit taking off of support, hasnt truly tested the level imo although it may work.
I don't think the overall trend for USD is going to change for quite a while, not until there is some clarity regarding the debt problem, big trend reversals that occure within one day are usually violent.
2cents
nice post, i agree. it puts them pin bars into perspective for me
cheers
jon
I will trade long at the break of this pin on AUDNZD. First TP and move rest to BE @ 1.2593. Second TP anticipated around the 1.2721 area but I will watch PA for that decision.
K.I.S.S.
i missed this one, nice call.
eu/nz looks interesting also imo
jon
I think the daily candle is a dragon fly doji which is bearish at swing high, and its hitting a weekly resitance area, are you long or short, or straddle?
i agree, i expect some retrace but im bullish over all??
jon
hi yawl...wow some posts today!!....er..er..no not gettin involved hehe
Ryan,Rusty you made some great points which are definatly overlooked by us newbies.i.e. trading to be right rather than learn to trade. i am a victim of adopting this atitude to studying fx, i even thought it was a good thing to ignore all mm untill i could read the charts and make good trades. Untill a person realizes the importance of good mm and good planning it is often put on the back burner.BAD habbit to form!
RESULT: demo acc. doubled last week...real acc. down 30 eu!!(thats not to say my demo trades were well managed either,but just trying to make the point)
tiafx,josh and anyone else in the first weeks of trading live, as a person a few months down the same road as yourselves, i would like to say... im sure you all (like me ) are somewhat prepared for the change to live cash and are quite aware of the implications psycologicaly..............WELL YOUR NOT!!!!
thats not a critism i want to impress upon you (before it costs you money)that imo the psy aspect HAS to be your main focus right now.dont let a loss get you down and certainly dont let it affect how you execute your next possition.plan your trade and ect........
just my 2 pips
jon
p.s.
Quote:
A winning trade is one where you follow your plan.
A losing trade is one where you deviate from your plan (ie, you use other people's input to make your decisions).
Okay, please let me know if this is good it sucks or anyway I can make it better, I will not get mad I will not cry or run away. Fire away
hey Ryan,wow thats some jump from 5min to 2day bars!!hehe
thats not bad for a noob!!
but i just thought i would show you a couple of things to look out for seeing as you have quite large targets(lol)(and are new to this)hehe
cheers
jon
just my take on the gb/us setup.
im short also (about the same price as that 1h pin,TrailingST set at @ BE. full possition)but im watching this level closely as i feel it carries a little weight.i also have a 2 * fib confluence.
jon
Absolutely g_j_. The Weekly developing potential PB may be the strength we need to push it lower.
Or this confluenced level you have shown (1.6200-1.600) may hold up and we look for bullish PA.
Very nice.
Jim
thanx. this brings me perfectly to my next q.
i am also short gb/chf from a 1h BEOB on the oanda feed(i dont get it on my mt4 feed)again my stop is at BE with my trailing st. a little beind my entry(i will bring it into play if price continues to fall)
the problem i have is that this is a CT trade and i would rather look for entries to go long when this retrace?? is over.atleast im pretty bullish longer term. now disregarding if this view is a good one or not i would like to ask you seniors how you would go about planning for a long entry in this situation. im sure rac would buy the lowest price of the week when he goes long!!unfortunatly i dont have his crystle ball so im left feeling like i havent got a decent plan for the trade(if it happens)do you simple wait for the pa to guide you?? any insight would be appreciated.
cheers
jon
i love the look of that weekly pin so far also
after daily beovb break wait for 38/50 fib and ppz retr. (confluence) stop above 61, short, boooom....
lol.. i just knew you would be on to it.!! i was smiling to my self as i watched price reach the fib.hehe
do you also enter at the break or just miss the trade if there is no retrace??
cheers
jon
Thanks for the feedback, the problem I am going to have is holding it but at least I know it. I really just need to forget about the trade, maybe open a 3rd account and do dailys on it lol Also that PPZ looked good to me and I do see the messy part. In fact I put on 3 positions here one w/o any target the other 2 are T1 and T2.
lol, i opened a sub acc. yest for the same reason.not just the longer term trades but the A+ setups (imo)my first trade today got stopped at a 1.5%loss!!(gb/us)
( i entered 1/3 on the 1h TF and the rest at the 2 day pin break with the stop above 6350)i took the full loss on the 2/3 but made a little on the first 1/3
jon
raczekfx, No, I didn't setup limit order with anticipation of a break this time. If there was no retrace I would simply miss the trade.
I will however be on a weekly pin break if it 'shows up'
thanx rac for the insight, i was wondering why the weekly??
i was also wondering how you manage your trades? do you have hard targets related with the fibs you use?or targets set to PPZs ,R:R, or.....wot?hehe
cheers for your time
jon
EDIT: sorry one more thing, do you only measure the retrace from the bars H/L or also include the full swing (i.e measure the fib from the total move including the H/L after the break of the bar??)
iv been toying with both, thanx
, i did place this trade on my phone though after seeing all your charts here! Thanks guys!
hey mike,just wanted to let you know how bad a habbit this is mate!!i thought you were past this stage!!
...we re crap!! hehe(only joking,were damn GOOD here on this thread)
p.s. let me know when i can take the tongue out of my cheek!!lol
jon
Has SupremeChaos posted since some of us (guilty), complained about his colourful text? Hope he hasnt taken it personally. Apologies SC dont stop posting altogether.
i hope not!! i personally liked the colour he brought to the thread!!
EDIT: BRINGS!!!
Spent some time tonight with my son going over some charts and possible trades he is considering. Thought i would share his record this year on this pair.
hehe,now that is .....
GOLD!!!!!
proud daddy and a proud son! congrats Jim.
i bet he,ll be teaching me soon!
jon
ahha got now,i thought you meant you only traded the break of weekly bars,,punto. thanx. jarroo also mentioned this weekly pin and it is sure looking sweet imo. a inside day today would be nice
Quote:
Hard targets if trade was talem against the trend, be it fibs, ppz,. Trail behind two bars behind if with a trend, with partial profit at certain targets, RR? Usually 1:1, but I kill the trade early if it doesn't look right.
from the total swing high low most of the time
nice one, thanx.
One of the reasons i love the posts from you experienced guys is what i get from between the lines.The most obvious thing that stands out here is that you obviously have solid trading plans in place which you stick to.
cheers
jon
Hi J16 people!
I was looking the 4h charts (15mins to close on my feed), and i noticed this possible setup:
- nice bullish pin
- with the trend
- nice minor ppz (blue box)
- 38.2 fibo ret (not showed in the chart)
Similar setup on EurGbp...see chart below.
hehe bet me too it!
i like the gb/ch setup. the only problem i see is that price is running straight into possible res @ 7220-50 but if it goes then a 100 pip break wouldnt surprise me. we might just be trading the weekly pinbar retrace also??
i have the PPZ and a 50% (?)fib,a TL, the 200 ema....its got it all!!
EDIT:jeeez this thread moves fast!!
See now that' is what happens in times of traffic,
Somebody posts something up for discussion and multiple posts with the same point pop up with a hardly a minute between them
Ofcaorse that's what's best too. lol!
You almost beat me to it Jon.
you gotta be fast thats for sure!(by the time iv typed 3 words you,mike,chaos AND jarro have all replied!! i should save my fingers!
ghous your a star!
ok,gb/chf ..test time!1/3 off the table @ +38
same stop, below the bar but im watching price closely and may well bail out on a strong failure
eu/gb small position from this morning, stop to 8821 locking in 15 pips hehe.
i feel these two are similar in that if they break the immediate sup/res they could fly a bit more, if it holds i think these trades are doomed for me!!
jon
hey Bakko did you take it??
i took the gbpchf, not the eurgbp!
1/2 off the table and the rest to BE, let's see if this can fly
looks to be doing just that!!??
jon
the more i look at the eu/gb pin the more i wish i had enterd more on the break!!
EDIT:2nd 1/3 off the table @ + 70ish
set the trailing stop to be at BE @73 if price gets there, which i hope will be enough room to stay in the move if it continues north.let it ride!!... its a FREE TRADE
eu/gb trailed with a 25 pip stop. it now locks in about 25 pips
EDIT: eu/gb stopped @ +37.(initial stop of 25 pips so im happy with that considering its friday
gb/chf...closed @ +160ish. ( happy that i put the 1.5% back in my sub acc. lol)Im now flat for the weekend.
BEER!!!!!!
then on to those weekly bars.
have good weekend yawl
jon
Nice shorts Ryan...how long have you held these? Are you breaking a record?
ahhh sod the beer.short eu/yen
nice call Ryan it closed a beauty!+35 in 35 seconds hehe. i hope it lasts
jon
EDIT: added chart, its a bit old now so sos for the mess
Hmm, if you got into this short you stop was about 260 pips, what if it went the wrong way? That is why I have to trade it a longer time think about this. When I trading the 5min sometimes it takes 20+ bars to finish, in 4hr terms thats about 4 days, now with the 2d PB that could be 15-20 days. When I trade I watch time as well not just price.
You may do okay getting 30-40 here and there but what if it run the wrong way do you take that 200 pip lost that killed you last 5 winners?
hi Ryan, thanx for your feed back.
you make a very good point and one i am aware of. it affects my account so i have no choise! i do struggle with holding positions and letting my winners pay for the loosing trades.and it does show in my account. ihave been thinking over various ideas recently.
today i have the eu/yen short over the weekend and it is one of the very few occations i have done so with my live acc..so im trying!!hehe
cheers
jon
I got the EA for that, you just set the pips profit you want to goto BE. I dont know if this is possible on MT4, but say I had a sell order for 1 lot and it hit my first TP I could have set a pending limit buy for .5 lot at this price, this would take half off?
Thanks KISS.
Mark
hi mark, i tried this when i was working and i was stopped out a couple of times before price hit my order,leaving me with a .5% possition i didnt want, going the opposite way to price!! hehe. after the second time i stopped. im not saying it will happen to you,just thought id mention it.
jon
i like the idea of a short term long here also. it could take price to a nice 38-50% retrace of the weekly PB? in which case i would be looking to short the pair.weve got a 1h IB..i believe you trade short TFs ?would you take the IB??
cheers
jon
one very small but I'd consider it more like a breakeven-trade with some slippage
like it!!
Hi Marco,great post.
The way I see it, there is a few different ?camps? and I think the situation your in will change the approach you might take. Like you said, if the account is 500,000 those few trades a month are enough, but of course if the account is 5000 you are gonna have to get another job!
Some people, mike,jarroo etc, like to let the trade run(or at least some portion of it) and generate great R:R this way.Others,raczekfx etc, increase there R:R by finding ways to reduce stop sizes.(not risk) this gives a greater pip value and generates greater R:R from smaller runs.
Also as time goes by and a person becomes more experienced with this methodology, he might want to venture to shorter TFs (4h , or even 1 h,) to look for entries. But generally this leads to its own similar problems and is a much more difficult environment to work in.
And, dare I say it?! There is more than one way to skin a cat! Once a person has absorbed this type of PA trading and gains a little experience and confidence it gives a good foundation to start looking at other possibilities. Remember this thread not only teaches us a method it shows us how to be good traders and so using these skills one could apply them to other ideas which may generate reliable trades
A general rule of thumb I think most traders use is NOT to enter a trade which doesn?t at least offer the possibility of a 2:1 return on risk.
You results have been great so far so an increase in the % risked might be an option for you. I personally think 5% is MASSIVE!! Hehe ,but that?s just me
Hope this helps
jon
Looks like my 1st target was a bull's eye to say the least.
hehe i was thinking that earlier!!
One thing to bare in mind...
one loss at 20% means that you then have to make 25% to get to BE!!
a few initial loosers and your fighting an uphill struggle from then on.
hey, I knew people hate what I was saying, 10% risk is no different than suicide. true
now, the question is how one could accumulate enough of fund to trade comfortablely with jim's style alike, but, start from small money. as I said, god is fair, there is always risk/reward trade off. if one couldn't risk enough at the beginning, how to build up his/her account to a size which could render him/her comfort to live by? trading is a tournement, if one doesn't have the determination to participate in a championship, then, spiritually, he is lack...
hi krue, this game can be very frustrating,and building a decent sized acc. will be a long road for most of us, but looking for short cuts is a dangerous game to play imho
Quote:
if one could manage 90% win rate, what to be afraid?
10,000 acc.....
20% risk . one loss
acc = 25% to get to original sum
(acc. = 8000)
one more loss( is this so rare it can be ommitted from the trading plan/approach?)
acc. - 1600=6400
acc. now needs 64% to get to the original sum!!
one more loss...( is this so rare also??)
acc. -1280 = 5120
acc now has to almost double to get to BE!!
you now need 5 consecutive winners to cover 3 loosers
thats just 3 loosing trades. even the best get that!
jon
Ive been birddoggin this pair for a month, and at times I feel so in tune and other times I feel tired and lost.I got short right near the 61 fib with a 20 pip s/l so I am happy with the trade even if it runs to 97. I am longterm bearish but this hasnt been an easy pair 4 me as of late.
nice trade mate..one of my favs.
i know how you feel on this pair, all the yen crosses seem to have a life of there own for me! hehe
jon
Originally Posted by raczekfx We'll eat fiber and cable for breakfast, lunch and supper throughout the next week...
That was just a breakfast...closing for now..
nice one, i was wondering how they played out for you. you got in the gb/us about 2 pips before me!! i must be learning something.
Quote:
Good one Raczekfx. I'm up 204 currently from the fall, stops tight. It has definately run out of steam for the moment. I'll probably get taken out when Geitner speaks and then I'll be looking for more PA to short again.
K.I.S.S.
lol, i got there too! still short eu with a faily tight stop locking about 90 pips and gb/us closed for + breakfast! hehe
jon
g_j_hook@yah,
aha.... that explains why i didn't see u earlier. lol
u were busy enjoying your pip cereal breakfast....
u were nice not to share some, huh. excellent move jon
lol...it wasnt mine to share, breakfast was on rac!hehe
Quote:
Hi Kean,
I am still testing outside bars for ideas around tight stops and retrace entries so bear that in mind when I answer. As always your question sparked some other thoughts, so this is less of a direct reply and more of a riff on what you were talking about.
great post TiaForex,(i allways thought of you as a women with the Tia bit??. )
Quote:
An iffy bar will always be an iffy bar and no amount of trade management will prevent it from being a riskier play. Thinking we can finesse our way out of a lower probability setup is in my opinion a tricky road.
i particularly liked this sentence,sums it up perfect.We are often tempted to try and get in every move with dodgy looking bars, a mistake i make myself although thanks to posts like these i suffer less and less. patience is the key here for me, looking for good entries on these bars is one thing but one has to be very carefull that it is not at the detriment of the setup.For many pairs right now a 1h bar size as high as 100 pips or more is quite normal so a large SL should be expected for most of us mere mortals!but that means it can go our way 100 pips a bar too!so why worry too much?!?
cheers
jon
EDIT: does that even make sense??lol
Easy trade, little drawdown after the break (-10 pips). An easy 50+ pips on the 1st half and 2nd at break even. 135.00 is a key level.
nice one jarroo, iv been waiting to short this pair for over a week now but i missed my chance today concentrating on other pairs!maybe next time
jon
EDIT: i see your 1.6300 is getting a hammering!!
Ya it was the 4hr deal, I was thinking others would see it, it's not a A+++ deal but who cares, I need 50% winners to make money.
hi Ryan,just wanted to ask how your % returns have been trading the longer TFs compared to the 5 min charts??i know its early days but do you think they will compare?
cheers
jon
EDIT: i was also wondering why you dont trade the dailys/4h with the same method you use on the 5min trades, same setups different TF??
I am doing 3% per trade right now and so far 0 losses and 2-3 stop @ cost. I am not making as much but I have a better life, got a trainer and hired nutritionist same guy for the LA Lakers so my quality of life is a lot better. Once you get to a point the money really does not matter or at least to me, what is the diff if you have 10 million vs 100 million if you drive a Corolla and live in a 150k home like me It is nice to go to a place and know you can buy it if you wanted it though lol
lol..iv think youve seen the light bro!better put your shades onhehe
As my account grows my working hours will shorten.im not out to be rich but i would like enough to work short hours and enjoy the free time that gives. seems you ve got it licked!,respect
cheers
jon
, I remember you from the aussie stock forums but I was just a lurker there.
Haha yeah it was quite a nice morning. You can't beat the feeling of planning an entry like that early in the day, seeing it retrace to the exact point, heading to bed and seeing that everything worked out : ). Well maybe can beat it a little by trading live instead of demo heh
Well it's clocked 10 am and I'm off to cram study for my exams... it's lucky external reporting account issues is SO interesting : p.
nice one mate,its a good feeling. i woke up this morning(eu time) to find my eu/yen short had allready hit its target. my girlfriend allways takes the micky by saying i trade better when im asleep!hehe..its probably true!!
jon
p.s. good luck with the exams
ok ill try but i have no idea what this post is about to be honest.
Quote:
Money is the singular reason that motivates people to risk trying this game.
not everybody my friend, we all need to make a living its the way of making a living that trading offers me i find so attractive.
Quote:
You may have a lot of fantasies running around your head, you know, the things you'd like to do and own, and if you are young, they are pretty limited (trust me on this, young people cannot imagine the possibilities) and all of these fanatasies require money to make them come to fruition.
actually im 40 years old,and im quite aware of the costs of my fantasies,as you put it.
Quote:
Then you'd better set your sights high. Money is not the sole creator of security, not by a long shot. But I can tell you this with a great deal of authority: I've been poor and I've been rich.
then why make it so important???you seem to contradict yourself.and why should i set my sights high??i dont get it??
Quote:
Rich is better.
for who?? you or the people who didnt eat so good today??its statements like this really pain me.
Quote:
I can also tell you this: You can live to work, but it is far better to work to live. (Right Ryan??)
isnt that my point??
Quote:
With balance, time, and a little pressure, all things are possible. Having clarity on what we want, what we really want, gives us the gas in the engine to do what we must personally do to achieve beyond our limited thinking we have today.
There are no limits, unless we make them.
no offence but it seems to me that you have limited yourself a great deal.the greater the escape from our insecurities the more reason we will have to be insecure in the first place. a divided society doesnt get better by getting rich, and for me neither is it nessesary to be rich to enjoy life.
cheers
jon
I'm always amazed at the matureness and appreciation that everyone on this thread would show to each other, not to mention how helpful thel people here are, we can always see any argument or "debate" would bloom to a intelligently brewed conversation(s).
This is one of the landmark of our very loveable 4 Years old thread, and one of those things that kept it living vigorously for so long, did you guys know that the number of posts grew exponentially each year? I bet we'll reach 4000 pages at the end of 2009!
That being said, this thread has...
hi Marcel,dreams are just dreams if we give them such a silly status.otherwise they are only small tasks to achieve along the way. dont let anyone tell you diferent!iv changed countries once to help achieve fulltime trader status for myself,i landed here with about 50 euros and nothing else!!it took me 6 weeks to find work but here i am a few years later with nice life, a class computer system and a couple of 1000 euros in my training account! slowley but surely my friend!! no such thing as dreams.only time
cheers
jon
HAPPY BIRTHDAY THREAD!!!!!
A good time to thank jim for creating this thread and being who you are, and everyone involved here(too many to mention)
You have all helped us more than you think!!
CHEERS!!!
Just to echo other members, Happy Birthday to the James16 Chart Thread!...
hi Josh,nice trade.
i was wondering when you were testing exit strategies did you run a test letting the last part of the possition run without targets?and if so how did it preform compared to stting hard hard stops?by my maths,correct me if im wrong,your exit strategy gives you about 1:1.16 return on risk??i was just wondering if this could be improved by letting a part run??
cheers
jon
Great question Jon,
You are correct on the expected R:R... I have not tested really on letting that last 1/3 just run (leaving stop at B/E)...
Let's think about it... if we change the last 1/3 to say tp at 5R... My trades so far are all coming off the daily/weekly chart....
thanx Josh, you make some good points, things which i have also thought a lot about.One thing i have been playing with is letting the full position run and getting the SL firstly to BE and then to lock in .5 R:R then 1 R:R. etc. iv not been testing it long enough to get any real results yet but it seems to work well on lower TFs if you get lucky enough not to get stopped by any initial retrace.This approach is based on the fact that i only risk 1%.when i start to risk 2% i think i will also play the trade in two halves and lock in the same 1% by closing half at 1:1 and bringing the SL to BE on the remaining half (1%).( i have an average daily target of 1%)i think the key is to pick only the trades which offer this kind of potential MM
cheers
jon
Just a quick question, as a newbie to James16 method. In the chart below, I know it's not a perfect setup- not really at a clear swing high (I didn't take this because of gbp news 20 mins ago), but is it important if there is no length at the other end of the wick to the nose ie when close is right at the bottom of the pinbar? This is called a hammer candlestick I believe. I hope that's clear enough and my chart is showing!
imo it doesnt matter,although the seniors may have different ideas. i think of it as just the timing of the bar close. sometimes the momentum is such that no retrace will happen and price will just drop from the bar highs and keep going(as in this case)or it may break the pin and then retrace a little(which would make the pin look more"normal" if time would have chopped the bars a little different)
hope this helps
jon
anyone ever play 1h pa before major news release? nice looking 1h pin at 9am bst (4am est). gbp retail sales released at 9:30am bst (4:30am est), results a lot worse than expected. on the 1h tf "price went exactly where we thought it would," for +100 pips.
Thanks Jon, that's makes good sense. Lots of momentum makes for a great pinbar.
Carl
while were on the subject i would just add that its the upper shadow that is important (as you know) for me its important to have a long shadow above(assuming a bearish pinbar), as that means price has been pushed high enough to see there is no more bulls coming into the market and the fact that this range is reversed in the same bar(making the shadow) confirms the lack of orders at those prices.I think of it like the game we used to play as kids where we would all line up and pretend to start a race but nobody,but the unsuspecting few, would bother to start running when the start was called.that left most of us laughing at the few who took of madly down the road lol. ( i dont know why we found this funny but it still makes me smile hehe)Therefore to me the shorter the shadow the less convincing the reversal/retrace as we are getting less and less info. This is why the location is so important, it makes the retrace viable. hope this makes sense??
cheers
jon
Trader131,
looking exclusively at your H1 chart, price is in a range, but the PB is near the highs.
Regarding your concern above, i believe it's a better PB if it has no wick below/close is right at the bottom. closing right at the bottom means sellers brought price down & won til that bar closed (u can check M30 chart to see how this exactly unfolded) --- very bearish omen(for that bar at least). as u saw, the next bar was a huge drop, a continuation selling.
If u would also put a down-sloping trendline starting from the June11 highs,...
lol..
thats actually how i played them .for me they were a kinda false break setup
jon
I am curious if you guys see the last hours pin bar (at the low) on the GU hourly as a good Buy signal
OR
Since we just had a pin bar at the high 3 hours ago (and a huge move down) this new pin bar is invalidated?
iv been watching these 1h pins fail all week and one or two have been posted here.In my experience after a strong down/up swing ,even of a few bars, price will take a few bars to actually reverse on this time frame(if it is going to!) often (too often)you will see a bar like this break for a few pips and reverse past its highs/lows only to see another pin form a bar or two later which would have payed off(news or no news). this is a real time example of why the higher TFs rule.one bar on the daily or even 4h TF eats all this noise in its stride and gives a much more reliable set-up. just mo
jon
the Rac Attacks!!!lol
i didnt want anymore exposure to the gb so i passed on the yen pin.
i did take the nz/yen 1h pin though but closed it out at about +15 as i didnt like the way it was taking its time. ill find out later if it was a good decision!
p.s. did price reach your sell limit order on the eu??it looks close on my feed?
cheers
jon
hi there Frantic, could you post your thoughts with the chart?? dont know what we are looking at here??
cheers
jon
i notice this is your first post so welcome to the non lurkers club!! lol
I'm looking for excuses to go short here cos it seems very reluctant to go over 1.65. Should I consider this as a PB or treat it as an IB, or maybe something else. Any thoughts, suggestions welcome to a newbie!
hi TotalNewbie,although this is a pinbar in shape this is not a pinbar as the shadow should protrude above the previous bars. nor is it an ib as it is not inside the previous bar.
also i think there is still some time before the bar close?? at least on my feeds??
hope this helps?
jon
Ok slightly away from the daily trading topics but I am going on holiday to the south of France later on this week
Just going onto Amazon to get the reading material ordered.... anyone got any good suggestions on trading related books?
Not going to have access to a computer etc when I'm away but any recommendations on books from a general trading perspective? I haven't read any thus far so nothings out of scope!!
Thoughts and recommendations anyone?
cheers! and happy trading!
Fat Tom
hey Fat Tom, i found both these books well worth a read.
Hill G Pruitt And L Hill - The Ultimate Trading Guide.
Beat-The-Odds-In-Forex-Trading-How-To-Identify-And-Profit-From-High-Percentage-Market-Patterns. some great ideas and revelations(for me)for trading.
and of course the Trading in the Zone.
happy hols!! im jealous i have to go back to work!!
jon
i took the gb/chf daily pin trade at 7815 and closed at 7867( where i indicated the first problem area on chart)for just short of a 1:1 trade.I also went long again last night at 7804 and closed at 7867 for about the same return. the set up reminded me of the GB/CAD pin bar a few days earlier,only this bar didnt take off the same way.
jon
EDIT:trade on chart is demo.
Thanks g_j_. I'm not well versed in the H&S patterns. Interesting look. It just looks like one big Pin Bar.
hi jarroo, dont missunderstand me...neither am i mate.this was just an observation.one thing i do know though is that this happens a lot on smaller TF patterns. just when you think you got it licked, often price will ignore a poss triangle to form a channel ! hehe
its mystery to me but also very interesting.
mabe thats why i get the glaced eyes look when i mention trading to any of my mates also!!l like somebody said, i tried to say i bought and sold money once but the girl disapeared fast thinking i was some kind of gangster!!! i dont metion it much nowdays. hehe
jon
I just wanted to tell you about some recent developments in my trading-life which some of you might interest.
In the past my trading looked a lot like this: I took trades of daily charts, set me an alert that I get an SMS on my mobile once I'm into a trade and then I'd watch it. Or I'd watch it anyway because I wanted to be THERE when I got into a trade. So I watched the markets a lot before I even got into a trade and even more once I was in. Then I did lots of fancy stuff, moving stops to breakeven quickly, taking some money, trailing...
great post Marco, this is me down to a tee. if i evalulated the trades which orders/and sometimes targets were triggered whilst asleep or if i was out of the house they would for sure be my most profitable collection of trades! micro management doesnt work. i hope to reach your level some day. i think its a matter,at least for me, of proper risk exceptance.Then good exit strategies.
cheers
jon
p.s. for all of you whos english is your second language you have no need to worry about or apologise for your english. most of you are more eloquent with your language than me, and they are usually better spelt!
Hi,
I've just recently joined the group and have spend the last week or so reading the thread from the start to about p150. I think I've got the idea, and have entered my first PB based trade. 2 lots long. Where do I get out? Currently up 100pips. Daily chart has the PB bouncing off the bottom of a upward channel.
Thanks, Jason
I hope the attachment worked.
hi kinsja, nice trade. on my feed i got some nice 4h BUOBs on the yen crosses. i missed the entries though . as far as eu/yen is concerned price has come up to quite a big level. if i was in the trade i would have taken profits now and my stop would be at BE.
hope this helps.
jon
EDIT: keep on posting. i just noticed that was your first post.welcome from the shadows!! lol
stopped out of my au/us short @ 7916..
now she takes off!!??...it would f*$#@n do now!! hehe
only joking, i took 1/2 off at about +27 so not such a stinger.
trades on chart are demos.
ikki, snap!! i took the chf/jpy also becouse i thought it a great location with the PPZ and the 50% fib.all stops at BE.
jon
quick question ikki & 4fun,
was dis a blind entry cos i also saw the same thing on gj,ej & nu but didnt see reasonable pa to short but still knew it wld still drop like a rock, did u set a sell limit or based on pa on a lower tf(didnt see anything on the daily apart from IB ...i think) ....thnx
in my case i entered the gb/yen eu/yen on the break of 1h ghous bars (hanging man or inside pinbar) and a 15 pin on the chf/jpy. im not brave enough to enter completly blind yet. for me these are more forward testing than my normal trades.i only entered small positions.
hope this helps
jon
ofcourse dis helped jon, wow! the inside pin bar or can i say the inverted pin bar(am i correct) , i saw dis as well, but not pa im really familiar with....did u short at the break of the inside pin or aggressive at the close....and where was ur stop loss
definately would do dis only on demo, trying to be flexible here and play wit diff scenarios as long as they are all pa related
thnx
edit: sorry u said on the break,jst saw it...lol
glad to help. my stops were above the previous bars highs(the bar before the ib)and yes entered on the break, this is agressive enough for me.the 1h TF is agressive alone.
all possitions are closed
I did, I just woke up sorry lol, it was short on that long the other.
aha ,lol
i like the au/yen pinbar also.i see it like this..the pin bounced off the 38% fib (drawm from the big move down starting near the end of july 2008 to it recent lows) to the pip, which is also a round number. bullish divergence on the dailies also. a nice third touch of the daily TL and the 200 EMA. i also like that price has recently broken through a serious PPZ and continued strongly.
i dont like those recent bar lows at about 7660-70ish or the 365 EMA it has to contend with if it does break. i should add that it is not at a decent swing low either.
i have an order at 7618 with my stop at 7390. lets see what happens??
Jon is it correct to use the fib like that? If you are drawing the fib from that high to the low you would be looking to use the fib as a retrace of the down move but what is currently happening is price has been moving up recently and has now retraced and bonced forming the Pin.
Shouldn't we be drawing the fibs from the lows to the recent highs to get confluence of the retrace. It is however interesting that price has reacted at that point but just wondering if you find the confluence with the fib as important drawn like this.
Hope I have...
hi Leon, you are correct in what you say but i have found they also often act as flip ppzs and (as in this case?) can act as support. i tend to only take notice of the fibs drawn from the longer TFs as it can get pretty confusing, normally i would use them as you have described. if there is a confluence of fibs,one from the swing high and one from the swing low, this also seems to get respected.
i would also be interested in what the seniors think about it??
jon
hi Mike, great posts as usual. these recent posts have made me question my decision on the the au/yen pinbar,lol.
when trying to trade with the trend we have to buy/sell the retrace yes? i find there is more often than not issues with space on these types of trades? do find this? and how do you deal with it?
thanx
jon
without a doubt this has been one of my best week & it isnt over yet.....lol
still cant shout but ill try....
anybody in eurgbp h4 & gbpchf h4 trades, loving them , they both are opposite to each other, once you get the right direction for one the other is definately the other way ( so far so good)
thank you LORD
thnx J16 fam , there truly is light at the end of the tunnel
have faith people....lol
ps: had a loss on euraud h4 pin, wasnt liking the momentum(cut it for a small loss) ....then wat did she do...she tanked after closing...
im in them both also.
took half off the table on the eu/gb and got both
SLs at BE. lets see what happens?? i think price could stall for while??
jon
EDIT au/yen not preforming too well yet, price is hovering slightly above my entry. anyone wanna swap for the gb/yen.???hehe
i quite like this one also, i have just taken the 4h beob, the break price was also the same as the daily pin. i would like price to break down to the .6300 level pretty hard as price is sitting on intraday pivot atm. i will be taking profits there if price reaches and then will be looking for .6250 to see what happens there.
jon
I took this trade last night and just got off with +100pips. Anybody else take it? Any views on my exit strategy would be helpful... thanks
Kean
hi Kean, nice trade mate. i was in this but not from the daily pin. i have also been stopped by my TSL when price bounced off the 1.6300 level with about the same returns.
firstly i was wondering where you had your SL when you entered?
my question to you would be why did you close?? was there pa to make you close? did it hit your TP? did you concider leaving a part of your position open? bearing in mind the ave daily range of this pair atm is about 250 pips
and you have taken a daily trade setup do you think it should be still open or are you happy with your pips? what was the R:R on this trade??
just voiceing my thoughts here hope you dont mind?
cheers
jon
I posted this chart in the pf last night as one on my watch list. Pulled the trigger when price was playing with the height of the left eye(more aggressive)
hi Rac, i would be interested to know what your TP plans are for this trade??
Also what method do you use for exiting a trade if you havent set a hard target?? TSL ,2 bar stop etc or do you hide it beind PPZs?
cheers
jon
I'm trading with tight stops i Just didn't like the momentum of the break so decided to close the position with possible small loss, couldn't manage anything better than that.
EDIT: yes I entered on the pin break
ok thanx. yes there does seem to be a slight lack of momentum!!??
im gonna hang in there a while and see where she goes!? the us session could well reverse the price, but could also push it south? time will tell
cheers
jon
Hi Jon,
As this trade was not an A+ pinbar IMO, I decided to watch it carefully and try to get my stop loss to break even ASAP. I am still experimenting with how to trade pinbars in traffic. My stop loss was originally placed just above the left eye at 1.6487 (130 pips away). I trailed it quite quickly to being -60 pips away. I decided that I wanted to be off it before it got down to the 1.62 PPZ level and noticed that the +100 pips level was just above this area and also some previous bar lows. So, that was my thinking. It dropped down and hit...
hi Kean, i follow your thinking now,thanx.
I am also at the stage where i am trying to find my feet in this. I am trying different exit methods myself as i still have a problem trying to hold my trades for the long haul.The gb/chf 4h pin yesterday was a perfect example for me of closing too early, price went about a further 150 pips after i closed my position for me not letting my winning trades pay properly is a big hindrence to my trading and my account. It has become as important to me as any other aspect to my trading (which is why i quizzed you like i did lol)
by the way one thing a do when i dont want to give back much of the floating pips i have in profit is to simply put my stop as close as poss,mabye 15 pips or so,just to see if momentum continues to move price. this alone has made me a good few pips by keeping me unexpectidly in a trade.( in fact i used it this morn on the gb/us trade when price reached 1.6350) even so price has since moved 100 pips further south since my TSL was hit (by 4 pips!) not a problem today as the trade gave me about a 2:1. The point i get from this though is there is much room for improvement, and when i do the returns can only get better.
i personally think there is too much time and effort given to getting a nice entry in comparison to getting a nice exit. taking a risky trade or an aggresive entry on a bar to get a better price (and bigger pip value)is wasted if we dont let the trade run its course.
just my thoughts
cheers
jon
I have been watching this pair since Monday. Based on what I saw on the daily chart, I took a blind entry short at 1.1620. I felt like there was a good probability that she would reverse here because of the confluence of the reversal pattern/fib and PPZ. The 4 hr chart is showing strong divergence and produced a DHLC there at the 365ema. My first position has already gone to TP. My daily closes in 30 min. I would love to see that candle close as a pin.
K.I.S.S.
hey KISS,nice entry!. i liked this yest. also and took a short from the 4h pin @1.1564
i still have my stop above 11600 for now.That daily pin doesnt look too convincing to me, i would have liked to see the shadow reach 1.1700. i do like the divergence though on both daily and 4h and i think the cad could do with some retrace at least. i will be playing my short close to my chest. i will be looking to short the eu/cad if it does take off .
best of luck bro
Quote:
Let's see this BarBreak stop loss thing on the Cad. Total risk about 15 pips.
hi Jarroo, this will be nice if it takes off!! 15 pips!! nice.
Quote:
James,
Don't worry man. Losses are part of this business, and over time you will learn to accept that we can't be right every time.
You've improved tremendously. I remember when you started this thread so that others could help you with your trading. And look at you now...
You are going to make it in this business, man. Well done.
seems that uz bee stung us all!! i managed to escape with -17 pips
..hiko de put...!
Quote:
Someone posted this wedge pattern a while back... still watching.
hi Josh this is just my opinion as always but iv been looking at this also and i get the feeling that that lower TL is being ignored rather than breaking??
time will tell??
Hi Jarroo, would this be concidered one of your double IBs? im not sure if the third bar needs to be inside the second? do you use this idea on the dailies?
cheers
jon
This is the only order (pending) I choose to hold...
Ghous...how come everytime you pick a blind entry the bar closes a pin!!??this eu/us looks the same story!?
did you borrow Racs crystal ball or what!!??
jon
It's important to see the true source of order flow though....
hi Josh, for what its worth i agree with what you say about both round numbers and the fibs. i guess these big orders dont get filled in one click like ours and hence the zones rather than single prices?
i would say though and this is not contrary to what you say,that on an intra day TF, im thinking one hour and below here, that pretty reliable PPZ can form between the round numbers, and i think this 1h gb/us chart shows the validity of fibs.this one is drawn from the highs of the end of 2007 to the recent lows.
cheers
jon
hi yawl, this is maybe a dumb q. but i thought we were being blamed for the hole in the ozone layer and that is what is causing the globial warming issues and polar ice melting etc.?? if that is the case i dont see that as too difficult to be our fault considering the amounts of pollution we make??
i once read an article from green peace which compared the age of the earth to the age of a man....
the earth i believe is about 64,000,000,000 years old, if we compare that to a 64 year old man i believe apes evolved into man about 2 1/2 hours ago, the industrial revolution happened about 30 seconds ago. in this 30 seconds look at the damage we have done!!! we think aids is a killer!!the details may be a little off here but it makes the point!
sorry again if this is way off ,i dont take much interest in individual issues as i believe in order to SOLVE any of these issues they have to taken as a whole and be understood that they are symptoms of the problems of man not the problem itself or the root cause?
Also considering light has no relative speed (we are told)and as that to me is impossible it kind of makes me wonder what in the hell we do know??im sure in the near future science will have many different answers than it does today.
cheers
jon
EDIT: the lasts post were made while i was typing this so if anyone can explain a little to me please PM me.
p.s. the people who are passionate about these things should try reading Jidu Krishnamurti,s stuff. the smartest man i have ever heard off!
or another view...
price has just come off the 50%fib, (drawn from the big move down),after a very weak break out of the PPZ at 90.00. it has come back under the fib and the 365 ema and then formed a BEOB the highs of which tested the fib and the 365 ema to the pip! the low of the bar seems to have been stopped by the 87 round num. and the rising TL.
the first IB in q. is a retrace to the 50% fib if the BEOB.
To me now the q. is, are these IBs a building of momentum to the downside or is it a gathering of strength big enough to take out the BEOB??? The bearish divergence seems to suggest a downside bias?also it looks like bearish wedge formation??
i will be watching this closely.
just my 2 pips worth
jon
EDIT: notice when price broke the 365 EMA to the downside( the first time) how it was retested the bar after before price fell further?? nice one Jim
I want to emphasize to all new and inexperienced traders following this thread that I have been following James16's minimum requirements explained in the first post. I would strongly encourage you to back off intraday trading until you have completed the 5-6 months of daily/weekly. (demo, then live). You'll develop a patience, knowledge, and confidence of the subject matter that you simply cannot do in a few weeks. It takes time for us to embed these positive practices into our normal habits. Everyone I've talked to says that intraday trading with...
hi Josh, i have a couple of points i would like to raise, but firstly i think the piece of advice you give is golden!
Quote:
1. I'll start with only using the 4pm,8pm,12am,4am,8am,12pm CT time interval. I have the broker to provide all four 4hour time intervals, but I think that would be information overload, at least initially. My unknowns here are 1. Is it ok to miss one of the 6 bar closes to sleep? Assuming it's 'ok', which would be best to miss WHILE still not disrupting my family life. 4PM is when I also look at daily charts as it marks the end of NY and seems to be a good time to refresh the day charts. So I might as well also look at the 4hr... the only two bar...
i think you have to sleep sometime!! lol. i think everyone would agree that the asian sessions are the least volatile most of the time. i think you could happily forget about bars after the us close untill 8 am euro/gb time.
The same goes for number 2 also. although trades taken at this time can run just as well astrades taken at miday but not as often.
Quote:
3. And again about timeframes... how will I plan out my sleeping. If I don't change anything, I would miss only the midnight bar close... but this is also the close 2 hours prior to London open and maybe it's wise to be in the market by that open if the signal presents itself.
do you really want to trade 24 h a day!!??
in my experience it can pay to be in the market before eu/gb open.( for some reason i seem to do well trading from 6-8am??) But i think of this change (when the eu/gb markets open) as i do when the us opens miday (my time) as i have found price could reverse as easily as it can continue.
Quote:
4. Exit strategies. As I've talked briefly about in the past, my strategy for trading the daily timeframe will not be directly applicable to intraday trading. The main reason for this is that intraday trading allows for much more lucrative R:R because of the smaller bars, and hence smaller stops. So I'll be testing several strategies for each trade.
not sure i agree with you entirely here. if you consider that a trade taken on the daily TF would,for the sake of a number, average about 10 bars before being stopped, i think the same applies for each TF and so generally i would think they are about equall in R:R expectancy, except mabye more setups to take? EXCEPT of course if you get in a nice trend, your tighter stops would make a difference to the R:R then i think.But only that one trade. I think another possible advantage is that you may get more oppertunities to add to a profitable trade if you include 4h TFs in your trading?? i personally think the trade management is basically the same for each TF (only faster,hehe)... take partial profit at the first PPZ , move SL to BE.etc.and will depend on how you grade the setup. bare in mind tighter stops get hit more often which, i think, is why it will even out.
i was wondering if you plan to use intraday PPZs for 4h trades ?i.e. ones you would not have normally drawn in or considered.?
just my 2 pips.
cheers
jon
Hey Josh, congrats on making it to this point youve opened a can of worms. I have no doubt youll find the shoe that fits in time [b]but one thing I know that has helped me is to pick a pair preferably a major and just birddog it, ofcourse monitor the 4hr open and close on other pairs but really really monitor that one pair try to get in tune as much as possible with its flow. I think sometimes people overload and watch too much. I think youll find it worth the time. By doing this you can get a real feel for price movement and many times notice when...
hi 4fun, i agree totally, i believe it is mega beneficial to get to know a pair well,when trading intraday especially, compared to how i feel with eu/us trading, for e.g. au/us feels almost strange!
jon
I bet by watching that pair alot its saved you from taking bad trades. I at times can get a really good feel and other times get tired & out of touch, might just as well through a dart at my pc. Ive learned to walk away at those times hell of alot cheaper lol! Myself on the 4hr since s/l are much tighter than dailys I dont fret so much about risk to reward so much as it seems so many people do. I lean more toward putting probability on my side with as little risk as possible to me thats whats important.
Again i agree,unfortunately the times i have been able to trade intraday DURING the day,i.e. eu gb/ sessions, have been limited but in this time i have realized the very same, some days i am so out of tune with the market i cant do anything right!like you say, it is definately better to "shut shop" on days like these! lol YET you get those days when you feel so in tune you seem to anticipate every twist and turn in price! gotto love those days! especially if the bad days didnt cost you! hehe
For me though i only trade about 1% risk for almost every setup so the risk factor is not an issue, i just adjust the possition size accordingly.if i can get a tight SL i take advantage and open a bigger possition!
jon
SomTam,
as per james16 method, try this (below) to improve your strategy:
your rule 2should be rule 1, & your rule 1should be rule2.
& then your revised strategy should look like this: rule 1 locate resistance & support levels, PPZs (on Daily, weekly, monthly charts) rule 2 locate PA (Price Action) setups located on areas in rule 1 -- such as pinbar, BEOB, DBLHC, etc rule 3 be aware of critical...
here here,
you beat me to it!
rule 4. complete ALL of the above before you pull the trigger!
jon
Good discussion about this one PipG. (ghous, g_j_hook, and others)
That big BEOB cannot be ignored. We have heard of Inside 4 pevious Bar (I4B) or I10+B. Well this Bearish Outside Bar is O10+B ( I just made that up. lol) Although it is not at a swigh High, stopping at a strong confluenced area of the 87.00, 200 ema (blue) , PPZ level and Fib 61.8. Does the BEOB have the strength to break through this level against the trend?
I agree with ghous the MAs and trendlines by themselves don't...
hi Jarroo, i agree with you about the traffic and this is a no trade for me atm.but this will be very interesting to watch( for me) because of the situation price is in right now,and i will be watching how it plays out. one thing i want to add which i believe is significant!? and that is that the TL is already broken if drawn from a line chart so there could possibly be a follow through??
cheers
jon
Hard to ignore the initial rejection of the sub 1.4 level in fiber. USDCHF is not as pretty a chart, however, and the last hour has been rather flat. EURUSD probably one to conservatively buy strength on PA confirmation.
PA.
i thought this and closed some of my short, but price seems to be inching its way down again??
jon
Given the multiple failed attempts to push through 1.4, we should be rewarded more substantially by this one soon. Stops, of course, warranted in the post intervention, summer environment.
yeah its a bit choppy.after price failed to make a new high with the last swing up i am treating this pair as rangeing.
took a stop and reverse possition on the 4h pinb bar (small possition). i have tightened the stop but not taken any profits yet. target 1.4100.
Hi ,
What do you think guys about this GBPUSD 4H PB which has just closed?...
I think it is in a good location...
hi jplo, for what its worth,i think the bar is in a good location but is very small compared to the recent bars. it is also fighting the BUOB which formed the bar before and a lot of traffic. there is also a 38.2% fib at 1.6437 ,which has been very active lately,to contend with if it does break.
im not saying it wont work out but imo its definately one to play tight.
jon
Please, posts containing individual posting stats and discussing the age of the thread are just taking up room. How are the newbies to get through all this.
ok mate ,lets grow up please. i am also tired of reading peoples opinion on politics. we are here to learn how to trade!
i was waiting for you to get the last word in! please dont respond to this i am just (i feel) voicing the opinions of all those who have a hard time getting throught this thread or even just trying to keep up.
cheers
jon
I have long time before trade geppy, so some times it take it when i see
now it will go.
But 2% to ewery pair risk is not same.
Like i said geppy is special, i calculate risk is geppy much higher
because it can easylu run against position fast and much.
I ldid learn it almoust ten year ago (no stop loss)
I did place long and it go up 30 pip ..nice nice
i take a cup of coffee and i did come back
after 5 min.
-140 pip..oooh, well it go up again.
3 hours later it was -310 and margin call come.
Later i have learn to like slow moving pairs...
Hi SomTam,i agree that this pair is something of a beast!! it seems to do what it wants when it wants! i dont understand why you dont see a 2% risk as the same risk accross the board though? is it not that you just need big ass stops on this pair??
cheers
jon
p.s. any tips on trading this pair welcome!! lol
__________________ PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
Last edited by g_j_hook@yah, Jun 30, 2009 3:46am
Reason: typo
anyone else interested in this last 1h pin on chf/yen??
after a couple of days consolodating price broke out of a dodgy looking triangle formation to test the 8900 round number.
it has now retraced back to test the break of those daily IBs, which is also the 50% fib retrace.
different views more than welcome
cheers
jon
EDIT: no trade, pin invalidated.
yeah interesting i dont get this on either of my feeds as they close later.
from looking at your chart it looks more like a pinbar and quite a nice one. the BEOB bars need to close BELOW the close of the preceding bar and preferably below its low,or at least 2/3rds of the way down( to quote the pdf file). i think Mike only takes these if they close below the previous bars low?( please correct me if im wrong Mike).
my feed is showing a BEOB atm and if it closes like this i may well take the short.?
i have attached the pdf for anyone interested.
jon
Don'y be fooled by the apparent 4H pin here. 6600 has been Strong resistance and I think it will ow be good support.
I'm long and at BE+ now
hi albchr, dont you like the fact that if it breaks, it breaks the round no. also?? would appreciate your views? i think it is a strong level also and has held up even with the bad numbers?
jon
"If" it breaks then yes. I've been playing this pair's range (6200 - 6600) for the last 2 weeks both up and down and making a killing. I've actually been expecting this to break above 6600 because if you look at the past 2 weeks, every retreat from a high has happened pretty quickly. On open this week there was a small retreat and then back up. This "indicates" to me the sellers are loosing interest. I expect a retest of 6600ish and will let PA tell me from there.
Of course all of this is only my opinion and I play a fairly dangerous game...
thanx albchr, i have been doing just the same with the recent range.it has provided some decent trades....BE @ +5!! thats tight mate!!
lets see what the pa brings?? i have to agree with SChaos on this though, its lookin like a false break.it broke out of its range during the asian session and whipped straight back in when the eu/gb market opened.maybe its just those bad GDP numbers etc holding it back??
jon
update.
the retest held up, shame the pin didnt ( it was a small pin though, you need to get a little lucky with these)
1h TFs ..no good for nothing!!! hehehe
jon
Yes we will have to wait and see now although I "think" that drop was a lot of profit taking on the news. But, who knows...LOL
Tight stops? Yes. Aside from all the "other" knowledge about PA I've learned here. A few things have really stuck out me after 3 times through this thread.
First, I treat EVERY trade like it's a "Jim" trade...LOL...
lol , nice.
it sounds a bit like me on the 15 min charts! hitting a 50-100 pips run with a 15 pip stop is ace,wish it would happen more often!!
i have also been thinking a little like you in that i have also a small acount and am tempted to open larger possitions initially but close most of it fast.?? not quite had the b#@ls yet though.
good luck
jon
Some of these 4H bars were tempting but they point right back into that thick consolidation. Too many roadblocks and I'm being careful not to play the first bar that comes along just because it's been dry while we've been ranging.
So patience. I'd like to see a more solid break away followed by a retest.
The longer the consolidation the harder the move. Price is winding up and will tip its hand when it is ready to move.
By the way, I don't have GBPCAD with my broker Jon but that looked nice. What was the divergence like on the 4H?
Great post again TiaForex, with my trigger happy finger i would do well to take heed!
I only have this pair on one feed(fxpro) and it is not something i follow either. this might be better taken if it breaks the 1.9100 level?the chart shows lovely divergence.
Quote:
I never drop below the 1H chart. Probably will as I get better but not now. I work mainly from the 1H and 4H for trading using daily & weekly for setting PPZ's.
i never atempt to trade pa off the 15 min TF . only pattern breaks like triangles etc. i wish i was good enough!!
jon
Talking about that PB.. (if ever u took it below the PB break)
"in hindsight", u could have looked at your indicators --- RSI & MACD.
MACD histogram was still above...
i didnt take the trade as ther pin bar was invalidated and i am still trying to get an angle on the yen crosses( as usual, lol) i never take a 1h pin without it breaking, im not that greedy hehe. and yes you make sense but i didnt have that kind of conviction.
Quote:
EDIT: I look for more than 50 - 100 pips though. This was a post from last week on the 25th in another thread. I had 3 trade very similar trades over the past 2 - 3 weeks.
impressive!! was this taken with the same tiny stop!?
jon
EDIT: currently long eu/gb, profits takenand ST@ BE, eu/yen, profits taken and SL just below 135( about 20 pips from my entry.) which if hit will leave me a little in profit.and short the gb/cad ....it might just have missed my initial TP @1.91 by a couple of pips if it continues north?
lets see what happens
I'm no expert for sure but I'm always very careful about location with these. If you look at the two "Green" arrows on this chart, you'll see that on the lower TF's, when these happen around PPZ's, they can often be misleading.
i agree here, i have all but stopped trading these kind off 2h pinbars as they are often misleading. i also remember reading something about this two bar formation from another site, i honestly cant remember exactly what was said as i wasnt too interested at the time but i think there is more to the pa here then meets the eye. or maybe im just getting paranoid!!??
jon
Couldn't agree more. Too bad this post didn't come before...LOL Might have made me pay more attention to my own rules...
Oh well, a good SLAP every now and then is a great teacher/reminder...LOL
well she fell! did you get a trade of the gb/us??
jon
p.s. one thing albchr, when you open a trade with the 15pip hard stop do you calculate your % risk from there also. i.e. 15 pips equal 1/2/3/% or whatever you risk??
cheers
It happened twice in a row to me, that I got stopped out to the PIP and than the price turned around and went
where my high probability price was supposed to go.
Any thoughts about this "getting stopped out to the PIP".
I like also to mention, that each time I entered a 4H charts and I always got stopped out late evening , like yesterday 1100PM EST
all the best
mea
PS: I listened to a webinar where the speaker told the crowd that with opening London and Frankfurt stop hunters
are very active and take out all stops close to opening price,...
hi mea, stopped out to the pip just as price takes off in your direction SUCKS!!!! lol
it has happened to me often enough to make me check through the feeds of other platforms to check if i was being ripped off!!! hehe... i wasnt.
for me it boils down to my stops often being too tight, a stupid thing to do to save a few pips! doh. but having said that it will happen again to me and to you!
often the trigger bars h/l is not enough, sometimes it is nesesary to hide a little further away as often you will be right with the TA, and the bar is a good one telling you the truth, but the market wasnt quite ready to move.
try and bear in mind when you place your SL the ave range the pair could move on a couple of bars in the TF you are using. e.g. gb/us has a high ave range and so if a trade opp. comes up which offers a SL of 50 pips it might be a good idea to STILL put your SL 50 pips away as this pair can spike 100 pips no probs BEFORE going your way.
just my thoughts
jon
Quote:
My TP hit, so first pinbar trade for real was succesfull
+151 pips
nice one mate!! congrats. n good luck with the next
im in from the 4h so im maybe a little bias, but to me it looks very good.
Bundy,
Quote:
USDCAD looks like a chance to break higher , and the pin could very well be a mirror of the GBP moves only.
this makes a lot of sense also,thanx for pointing it out i hadnt thought of this.
Quote:
I could imagine we'd be all yapping and carrying on, beers etc in hand, when all of a sudden the 4hr chart alrms all go off... ....everyone goes quickly silent and shuffles to their blackberries/iphones etc for a few minutes. ...Then back to it like nothing had happened, the topless bar maids all confused and thinking something from the twighlight zone just popped into their lives. ....ahhhh.... goood times.
or make it happen please make it happen!!! lol well at least the cheers smiley, cool idea.
well this is why i like it....
jon
I have been happy with them, I used to trade just DBFX due to having a broker account but now Oanda is pretty good even if you are doing 6 million units I dont have problems getting filled. One thing is after leaving it up for a few days it seems to lock up and you have to log back in but thats no biggie unless you are doing the 5min deal then it's more of a problem. Also DBFX is good but I really like the Oanda interface the best.
hi Ryan, 6 mil units! thats over 400 eu a pip!.. i dont know if i have that much sweat! lol i hate it when it locks up also as it always seems to act a lttle strange when i unlock it. now i just close the platform and reopen it when im back. i like the TSL also but it is about time they had some more order types if you ask me!
Ryan/Moneda(got any spare?? venga hombre! lol) have you ever used the box option??
[QUOTEI trade with Oanda but use ODL for my charts... do you trade solely with Oanda's platform (3hr)... if yes... tell me how you like it.][/quote]
im not him but i have had success trading the 3h bars.you can sometimes get a better entry than the 4h setups or sometimes get a trigger bar which you dont get on the 4h chart.
jon
gb/cad...dont be too suprised thats what we paid for no??!!!!?? hehe
i think it was the extra 500 units i added to my possition that did it!!??
closed half around the 200 EMA(1h TF ), SL @ BE.
So u can now move the market around huh? LOL..
did it also cause the FF to have server overload about 20minutes ago?
hehe i can move the market if i move my computer.. does this count??
there was a warning on the FF facebook about the server probs,apparently we are getting bombarded by ....something electronic and techy.??
Quote:
dkmb92,
are u referring to Oanda having 12am est close? Thanks!
yes it does and the daily bars usually suck, well the last i bothered to luck anyway. i think they are different to every other platform?
jon
I would be careful with this one personally slurpee. It has a very poor close IMO. While it is technically a pin, the close is much lower then the open, giving the bar more of a bearish look to me then a pinbar type look. That and the 6500 mark with many bar highs right above it would have me very weary.
Best
Mike
hi Mike, i was wondering today if you were still in that au/yen long from the daily pinbar??
cheers
jon
I got in and out for profit quick on this one, around the first trouble area.
thanx Mike (mbqb11) im allways interested in how you guys approach and manage your trades. cheers.
Quote:
Sorry brother...the only spare that I have is a spare tire from my '69 Pinto... No I have never used the box.
Buena suerte amigo,
lol, gracias hermano.
Quote:
I am!!! My only live trade currently.
Have a demo trade on from the 4hour too, not a great bar, but great location...How 'bout you?
Josh
very nice Josh!! im not in i think i was out about were Mike said. i like the 4h bar you demo,d,nice idea. for me i dont want to open 1% on a daily trade and close it a week later, i want to build on the possition whenever poss. in just this way. ( be carefull Mike he,ll be taking your job !!) hehe
jon
Can I clarify these simple facts. James16 is stating you need a large account before you can profit well at Forex....So what's the point in learning unless you're already a Millionaire?
Thanks Mike.
It makes a big difference when you have a trading plan based on something solid instead of just trading on pure luck.
hi Raczefx, i traced out your trade on my chart.. nice one.
its very true what you say here, these kind of trades and this kind of consistancy can only be achieved by having a good plan and trading it well(i.e. sticking to it! and using good MM.)
cheers for the insights.
jon
A question looking at BEOB. Here is one I found on USDCHF. we have now had a retrace of this which actually extended beyone 61.8%.
Is this something that we should be looking to play on the long side or because we had a significant retrace then we need to be wary? Additionally its against the downtrend of the last few weeks?
hi verno,i personally start to get douptful of setups when price retraces "too far" back into the bar like this. it seems to me that the momentum which formed the bars(i think the same way for pinbars also) is not following through like i would like.although the bars are technically still valid, and may work out just the same,i would rather be safe than sorry. of course this is a general view and each setup is different and should be viewed in comparison to the preceding bars to get a fuller view.
The bar you posted wasnt at a swing low and was in a lot of traffic and so wouldnt be a bar i would take in anycase.
jon
Following the famous adage stating 'trend is your friend" :
1) how else could we define what a trend really is ?
2) By using a moving average, trend lines, oscilators...etc.....?
3) On which time frame if you trade the 4 hours for example ?
Thanks for your attention,
Happy trading,
Cheers
Angel
hi Angel, i personallymainly use the the old classic...higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend and lower highs and lower low for a down trend.
hope this helps.
jon
4h pinbar on fiber,
i like the location,that big round 140 number price keeps bouncing off, but the bar could be longer so has it bounced once too many?? price is in a fairly strong uptrend though and there is some bullish divergence on both macd and rsi. i see res. at 140.50 and 141 so it would have to be played pretty tight.
any feed back welcome
jon
Dono if this helps any but it does me so I will post it. I also watch the S&P and dow very close, if they sell off the US$ goes up MOST of the time, just something else to add to the mix, also tomorrow will be slow just a fyi.
thanx Ryan,The time of day/week was also bothering me.
i had just pulled up an S&P chart after reading your post. these corrolations are something i am just begining to learn about and am in the process of re arranging my chart setups to accomodate it. i had thought to ask if you ever work it the other way around? i.e. if you get some good bullish pa on the currencies would you concider entering the indices? And i also wanted to ask why you dont simply trade the S&P or the DOW ??
cheers
jon
I did the S&P or spooz for years on the 3min charts and made good money, left when the range started to get 6 points lol and have been doing this now for a few years. I can trade any markets really it's all the same, this is new so I will do this for a while and ya I do mess with the S&P some from time to time
Ahaa... thats what spooz means!! lol i was gonna ask aslo but forgot!
thanx
Not trying to influence you either way. I can't get in long yet with what I see. My 4hr candle closed 12 min ago.
K.I.S.S.
yeah i got that feed with alpari. to be honest its getting too late for me to baby sit this one if it does break so im gonna pass .
thanx for your input bro
jon
This trade was based on what Bob added here today...
i also took this trade. i must be learning something!! it was the DBHLC on the next 2 bars what did it for me. iv got my stop @ the original 1.6430, gonna see what happens next.
jon
Ok it hasn't triggered yet, but there are several pros:
nice looking pinbar
at 61.8 fib retracement
perfect touch of trendline through minor ppz
First TP just 0.8590 just below PPZ and monthly pivot (if it triggers!)
Cons
Hasn't triggered yet
Possible resistance at 0.8565
Views anyone?
Carl
EDIT: apologies for the cci's at the bottom and all the ma's- old habits die hard!
hi Trader131, nice trade mate, that exactly the third touch i am looking to trade. i didnt get a pinbar on my feed but a I2B setup which could have offered me some good R:R but i missed the trade.
Do your self a favour and get rid off the garbage!! you obviously dont need it!! ( bet you dont even use them!!??)
cheers
jon
Dale was this one for you!?
Yeah of course I get losers, not many though TBH, here's a trade now that could lose on the chart, i like to see the next bar or two to trigger the trade rather than further along, ( I chose it as an example) let's see how it turns out. The most I will lose is my % which is 1%, you could do 0.5% no problem, as my method is in the 80 odd % accuracy range so you wont get that many losers IF you're applying it. So you could start at say 0.5% then work to 1% or higher, it depends on your risk tolerance, but with these...
hi Bob can you explain your reasoning on this trade? this is one i wouldnt have taken , poor bar shape and running into the 96.00 level. was it the HH that persuaded you??
cheers
jon
EDIT: i forgot to ask if you ever go to lower TFs to look into your setups before you enter ?
i had forex in mind with this post since its forex factory.
The same applies mate, i think every seniour on this thread trades short TFs (except Ryan lol ) It has been said many times that this kind of PA works on ANY MARKET ...ANY TF. The problem is as you turn to shorter TFs it becomes much more difficult for the inexperienced traders, good decisions have to made on the spot and the set up evaluated much faster. I would say that about 85% of the readers here are newbies and the posts are made with that in mind. You cant jump into 1h charts without understanding this stuff pretty well and having a chunk of chart time under your belt.( or at least its not recomended)
Rember that this thread is not all about teaching us newbies how to trade but also they are trying to keep us out of trouble untill we learn. All i can say is im glad i found this thread BEFORE i blew 10,000 trying to learn this stuff.
just my 2 pips
jon
ive attached a chart of the EUR/GBP which you commented on earlier. i saw what i thought might be a possible S&R area to the left.
Am i making something out of nothing, like here for example??
In the past i have found a well formed pin but let it pass due to what i thought might be S&R areas in the past, to see the price shoot off in the direction i thought it would.
judging from this chart, was i looking at unimportant resistance from the past in this case?? 0.8550 area
appreciate any comments anyone else would like to add.
thanks...
hi mate , imo you did well to identify those areas of concern, they are very valid. sometimes price will ignore these areas but not too often. good work and keep posting.
jon
You've heard it said that the novice trader thinks of what he can gain, the experienced trader thinks only of what he can lose. Well that's why novice traders jump down to the lower timeframes without having proved themselves on daily and weekly first. They have zero experience, a psychological mindset made of paper, and they lose and lose and lose. THAT is how "the pros" make their money. From those who are willing to toss their capital away.
thats exactly how they make there money.(especially the bucket shops)Thats that 90 odd% stat again.thats a lot of small accounts! i bet not many of them did it the J16 way!!??
jon
I'd say it's a good trade compared to the other ones shown, and it simply was a loss - no big deal. But I'm sure someone will come up with a reason or more why you shouldn't have taken that one ;-)
i would tend to agree but there is a number of bars on the chart i wouldnt have taken and a few i probably would have but are not shown. when i look at my chart i feel it would have been a CT trade.
jon
hi John, i dont see any trade here, the daily bar is not a pin bar (although the same shape)the bar lies at the bottom of the preceding bar with the shadow inside it. We want the shadow to stick out above the preceding bar( and i would like it to be a longer bar than this)
The weekly bar is not much better im afraid,imho, it is very small and more of a neutral candle than a pin bar.we would want this to be at a swing h/l also and this comes after a few bars of retracement. Some people might still trade a bar like this IF it was a better bar,i.e. longer shadow which stuck out above the preceding bars, but it would be a riskier trade that a pinbar at the h/l point.
if you compare these bars with some of the pinbars this pair has given us this year you can see the difference.
hope this helps
jon
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnykanoo
guys i notice a pb on the gbpjpy daily and weekly. do you guys think it would be a strong short? the weekly is bouncing off of the 38%fib
the daily is printing lower highs and admittingly the pb formed in a sideways market so ill give the pb a b but my lack of experience means i could definatly be wrong.
anyway im in demo for a while and watching the daily closely.
Don't think we have a lot of space there Jon 1.75 is a big concern, DAMN it's a brick wall, on the chart below notice how it has forced price to give off tails at tocuhes.
You'll have to manage it tight...
Regards,
Ghous.
yeah good point ghous,this is why i didnt post it over the weekend.
its something to watch. ( i had actually just closed my short from this morn when i posted.)i would like a retrace entry if poss??
cheers
jon
From a "By The Book" Pinbar, the above is correct.
But by looking at Price Action as it is, naturally, that signal was a clear short term sell off, and look what happened last week.
i didnt and still dont see it as a clear short. maybe you can post a chart and show what you mean? the weekly bar used for a trigger is not a clear signal to me?
Quote:
Note to John: You should probably trust your instincts more. GBP/JPY was a great short all last week, as well as a bunch of other pairs including major ABC/USD pairs. If you went short, you made money.
No offence here Revone but imho this is the fastest way to blow your account. you cant build a good trading plan on instincts. i am looking for something quantafiable and repeatable. in fact i try to leave any instincts or bias i have in my head and only trade from the chart.
cheers for the feed back.
jon
hi stewrigh, just looking at your chart the last HL should be a LL no ??i would count the reaction low to the first HH you marked as my first HL.??
just mo.
jon
this is one i will be taking if the bar closes like it is now. nice looking daily pinbar with a little divergence, it could be longer but it is a nice shaped bar. i like that it seems to clearly shows the buying pressure coming in under the 60.00 level. price has been ranging between the 60.00/60.50 level and the 63.00/63.50 level all last month so it looks like it could test thoughs highs again over the next few days?? All the yen xxxs are showing fairly bullish candles also(au/yen is quite a nice pin imo) i like also that the NZ/US is showing a daily BUOB
The downside is price will run into res. if it breaks at 61.00 which atm is not many pips from the break price.
any other views appreciated
jon
EDIT: price has moved a little
Yep I suppose you could look at it that way from the previous high of 1.43 but I re-start the process when the trend changes and it changed from down to up when price hit 1.38. After that there was a series of higher lows and higher highs, prior to that it was lower lows and lower highs. I may be wrong but thats the way I read the charts.
yeah, i suppose its what TF you look at it from. Dont mean to split hairs,lol just thought id mention it.
cheers
jon
lol..dito the 4h us/yen pin. lets see how it runs over the asian session? i like how the US futures (dow,S&P,NASDAQ mini)have closed with bullish looking bars also.
good luck
jon
How do you figure the r:r? how is 1:2.5 or 1:9?
Sorry dumb question, I just dont understand, trying to get it
hi goldbird22, its simple, its just all the jargon gets confusing.
R:R = risk:reward/return
if you risk say 50 pips and make 100 your R:R is 1(what you risked):2 (what you made in relation to the risk, i.e. in this case twice the amount of what you risked)
You might look at it in terms of %s. i.e. if your 50 pip SL represented 1% of your account your 100pips return would represent 200% of the risk. this would still be a R:R of 1:2
hope this helps
jon
Load your guns Guys. Not a perfect PB, but the location is good, with the trend and have confluence . I?m waiting for this one for a week, it?s time to ride it....
First TP @ 1.8400
Be carefull with this one mate that is more a nuetral bar than a pinbar on my feed(spinning top candle). Im not saying it wont work out but i would play it fairly tight. i am also pretty bearish on this pair and the 1.8700 seems to be the deciding support level??
just my 2 pips
jon
Hey dmc thats all true plus the 4hr pin it was a part of all had southbound momentum. I pulled a fib on the 1hr pin and got in b4 it broke then when it got past 61fib it was time to kill it. It was a very high risk trade therefore I was only going to feed the monster a peanut. Finished for today see what the day bars bring later thanks for your thoughts.
Hi 4fun, buying a 1h small, not very convincing pin bar with strong downward momentum running straight into res at the round number, on the retrace, BEFORE it even broke is not just a risky trade imho, its suicide for your account!! looking back at the bar now it was a brave trade!lol
jus my 2 pips
jon
nr. 1.. hoooolly, that's a long post, lets skip it and go to the next one. nr. 2.. nice blue circle, i wonder if that's what they call a bubble..
nr. 33...
nr. 55... Fine, i'm doing it, but wont' have time to post here for a next little while..
It's funny to see people trying to copy someone and they have no clue on why or how it is done, Why don't you find something that works for YOU just like I have always done, if you are going to copy someone else without knowing 100% why how and when they are doing it your going to lose. Years ago when I did the 3min thing it took me about 6 months with phone calls and e-mails DAILY with my mentor to get it down what he was doing, I don't think a few charts of what he is doing is going to get you in the winning area. Why not just do the PB's with...
here here, it seems the end of bar SL has been abandoned!!?? in favour of R:R??? i dont get it!
jon
This is for the fans of blind entries like rac and ghous (even if on demo)
Or not?
hi bakko, for what its worth i would be wary about a blind entry here. Great PPZ but it has been has been bashed quite a bit allready and each reaction high of late has been getting lower and lower. It has got some nice bullish div on the 4h TF though. i dont sat it wont work out but i personally would rather wait for some bar confirmation.
jus my 2 pips.
jon
I know some hate when I am so picky but hey that is me lol. Technically this isn't a pin b/c the close is under the previous bars low by a few pips. That is what makes me nervous about all these close to pins. There isn't a ton of confluence to get me excited that this wasn't just a pause before another fall(think falling knife). Now the size is pretty good but that one little aspect makes me nervous. If that left eye doesn't hold this thing could just keep tumbling.
Just my perspective though
Mike
Hi Mike, i was just wondering if you could explain the importance of the left eye price/level. i often see price make that perfect right eye,i.e. the same price, but the price doent seem to hold any value appart from it being the left eye price?? hope this makes sense to you
cheers
jon
Hi Jarroo,
I've Seen That, But Because Of The Bullish Trend In EUR/GBP, I Rather To Take The Eur ...
Regards,
Basber
Hi Basber, the rise in the eu/gb may not reflect a strong euro, it could be just that the gb is weaker in comparison. also from what i read(not experience or tested fully yet) the eu/yen is more likely to mirror the gb/yen rather than the eu.gb. Since jan of this year the gb/yen has risen about 30% and the eu/yen about 20-25%in the same period.
just some food for thought
jon
That is exactly the observation I was trying to share....
thanx Mike,(wow your fast!!)
so basically as i see it, the level of the eye/s is where the main body of orders kicked in to reverse the price, with the shadow representing the "overflow"( for want of a better word?) of the orders??this then makes the right eye price make sense( at least to me. lol)
or am i missing something?
cheers
jon
Well I wouldn't go that far with all of it personally but if it helps you recognize potential bad situations to reconsider then sure
It is simply something i have seen over and over, and know when to respect it. When you don't have anything to hold up these pins, and that left eye can't hold, it can be a rough ride , so I would rather wait to something I am more familiar with
ok, thanx again,
im just trying to understand the logic of the right/left eye. i personally dont use it as a place to hide my stop,Although i like the break bar high idea.(thanx Jarroo)( i am actually short gb-us/yen )Experience tells me to respect that level but i am just trying to find the actual reasons behind why price respects it so often.
thanx for your time
jon
Hey Mike. What does Price tell you when it smashes through a Big Round Number with S/R support. Like the Gbp/Jpy 150.00?
Price cut through that 150.00 like butter, without hesitation.
Tells me we are in for a big fall.
agreed i find myself getting all excited when i have to stretch my months old PPZs forward on my charts!! LOL
i dont see much in the way of 141-2!
i think next stop at 145-6??
jon
yeah the great thing about trading is we can read whatever we want as individual. My job is to identify high probability setups. More then likely this will do as expected, at least to the 130 and 150 respectfully eur/j and gbp/j....
Mike i LOVE posts like this...they keep reinforcing those details that can easily be forgoten (at least by me ) it is so easy to try and justify a trade setup once those $$$ signs light up!!
cheers
jon
...Yeah ...and the 'ole.... :- "Well, it'll be awesome if I can get in at point C , but just so I don't miss out I'll put on half right now and then the rest later if it makes it there. ....Wow going to have an awesome R:R potential if it DOES get to C!!!"
In the mean time most of your trades draw down your account before either stopping out totally or reversing at the 'higher probability' entry point C. LOL
hey!!!!...you been reading my account statements?!?!?!?!
5% a month = roughly 80% a year or 1768% in 5 years
gotta love compounding
tell ya whats scary, starting off with $20,000 and compounding 8% a month (roughly 2% a week - so very acheivable) and over 10 years without adding any extra funds it equates to $205 million dollars...
10% a month = close to $2b over 10 years
5% a month = approx $7m over 10 years
wow thats some coincidence!! i was messing around with the numbers last night! lol BUT i made it about 71% per annum on 5% a month?( it was late though)
2500$ account over three years of 5% per month = about 13,000!!!
Add a couple of tins of bear spray and your reaching 20 or 30,000!!!!
jon
EDIT: also with the interest paid by the brokers that 5% gets a little easier.
Some hints on what I do now on the 4hr, to me it's all about getting a long term winner when we have a trend. I posted a few days ago that it looks like we are starting to trend again and we did. Here is a chart of one of the treades that I am currently in and how I played it. Also I used the 1hr last night to try to get a better fill but that takes too much time and is really not worth it to me so it's 4hr only for add'ins on a trade....
Also Most ppl look for the huge pins, I look for the small ones due to not needing a huge move to make money...
Excellent post mate!! Thats having a plan for you. The same plan that kept you out of that dodgy bullish pin that came a few bars before. nice
jon
In the past I would of took that pin and lost, I still see them I just have to change the way I view them. I think it is human nature to counter trend trade just like it's human nature to get a "good deal" a CT trade is a "Good deal" if it works out and you can see where you want the trade to end up at, when you go with the trend you don't have as much as a map to see what you want to happen and it's new ground.
yeah, i agree. i have been trading the breakouts of those trend retraces for some time now, i used to use patterns and TLs ,and still do, but i lean more to PA bars for signals these days. These can provide great trades when they form over the asian sess. and break ealy in th euro/gb sess. I ,like yourself, have a real problem holding over the long term but am working on it.! i am currently trying to stay in a trade like this also and add to them with 1h/4h bars once im at BE on each possition.
i have been kind off fishing for a long time now gathering all the info and methods i can. After a while it gets a bit messy in my head as i wait for the dust to settle, but i think it is coming together for me now and i am trying to impliment my ideas to my trading style/method and formulate my own trading plans and rules. When i see posts like yours and racs who have there own style and trade it well, it gives me a boost of energy to continue and a little confidence that im doing the right things. nice one
i believe it was a post from SeekingLight who touched on this before and it was great advice.
G550,
Quote:
Great chart, Ryan. Thanks for continually sharing. I'm starting to look at trades in this way; not sure why I never quite did before. But it makes the most sense. Damn do I feel like an idiot for not noticing these things...but that's why I'm here
hi G550 i can relate to this mate. When you hear the pros tell you its simple, i guess this is what they mean. BUT it only looks simple after a while. Its amazing how often the obvious escapes us!!!( UNTILL LATER)
happy hunting
jon
Yes, Sp, all that u said and i also mean most of all the big ones, like NFP; BOE; FOMC etc.
While u were backtesting for example a nice pin bar and then price went strongly and directly to your TP..
Did u went back to see if that day we had some big release, and then proceed to delete that trade from the backtest results because when trading live, you know you are not going to trade news?
Most people don't do that, and if you traded news on backtest and you don't do it when trading live, you are just trading a different system that the one you...
hey Matty, you make a good point here. I did once try to map out the news on some charts but it wasnt really benificial as i remember. I dont think the suprises come that often to worry too much and even then in a bear market, unexpected good news doenst seem to make much difference to the market sentiment(unless of course its somwthing major or an intervention) where as if you are already short bad news can make you a killing!
I know there are many traders who ignore most of the news and the ones i have spoken to believe the market is usually allready possitioned??
jon
hi T.E.Lawrence, imho people have been a little harsh with you today, i think you asked a valid question, and i didnt see it as offensive. You can see by the reaction of the regulars here how they feel about jim doing this for the money!!. that should tell you something.
my own personal view here is that i dont see why he shouldnt make something by teaching us what he knows.Why not, i feel very lucky to be able to get this stuff for free! And the small fee he charges for the PF is almost free compared to most..Also even if you dont feel that Jim,or any thread starter,is straight on the line that doesnt mean
a/ you cant learn something,
b/ you Have to give your money away!
I can only say to you READ THE THREAD, it is gold! after that you can make your own mind up!?
jus mo
jon
EDIT: after bob the nob payed a visit i think people are still a little defensive.? lol
I actually got a friend to sign up to the PF and 85% of it is beginners journals. It's basically the same as what's on here, and you get to watch 'after the move' videos.
Videos from Mike are more intelligent as he seems more clued up with Money Management. All what's on there can be found here and on other forums like T2Win for free. The reason why it's free after a year is simple (it's basic business planning)
1: It keeps subscribers keen to get to the 12 months.
2: It keeps numbers up.
Do I care that he does it? Nope, I think he's a brilliant...
You speek like its a crime to make money. Who cares what he makes?? The fact is for each individual its a bargain at twice the price. Nothing wrong with selling a damn good product and a damn good servise for a CHEAP price imo!!??
looking forward to your thread bob, lets see if you can do any better. its easy to talk mate.
jon
nice trade Interceptor , that is one i was also waiting for but missed as i am not trading today.
i was gonna take one of its counter parts also when they broke.
still theres more around the corner
jon
Yes its lovely. The only problem with the Barcelona area (for a foreigner) is the Catalan language business...much different to Castillan Spanish, and an important consideration for a family, education-wise etc...still it really is beautiful and I do feel fortunate!
hi razldazl, i used to live in Mallorca and i loved every minute of it! i remember well my walks through palma. beautiful!! it must be about now that the stage is put up in park del mar? i passed a few good nights there!
jon
p.s. i notice you dont post here often,please keep them coming.
I guess my immediate prediction on Price of the Gbp/Jpy was not very insightful. (current Price is 152.00).
I better just stick to Price Action around highly confluenced areas.
lol. me too, but its not over till the fat lady sings !!
one green daily IB in 5 big red bars...it was bound to happen?? wonder where shell go now?
jon
Check out the moves these two "small crappy pin bars" caught and their associated risks. I posted the ones that were the big runners because they were easy to identify as I was going through my charts so take it for what it is (just 2 trades that worked). Nevertheless, I think this is intriguing and will defenitely be keeping statistics on these as I demo. Again, take it for what it is, don't trade every SCPB that comes and think you are going to catch these moves.
Ross
hi rossbennett, becarefull here mate, i think he only plays these crappy bars with the trend. im sure he'll correct me if im wrong though??
thats not to say they are not worth researching though.
jon
Intersting area of high confluence on the Gbp/Jpy 4 hour PB (IBFX feed) that some took yesterday. (I did not).
155.00, 150 ema and 61.8 fib. Not a bad target to shoot for.
And not a bad area to shoot down from.
yeah, i didnt get the bars on either of my feeds or i might have been tempted??lol
i have the area you mention marked on my chart also but i find the level its at now interesting also. What do you think of the PPZ running back to 1994 and 2000!? the IB closed right in it. worth trading either way i feel?
cheers
jon
True and now on the 5min I run different risk for different times, I have one setup that works about 30% BUT my risk is 3 pips, target is 21 so it's 7:1, right now I am doing the small PB's on the 5min with 5 pip risk 20 target so I can lose 50-60% of the time and do well, sometimes I win 50-60% so it works well.
thanx for the confirmation. When you say you run different risk for different times, could you elaborate on that? i guess you mean different sessions ,i.e. assian sess. v gb/eu sess? this is something which interests me, i have noticed price react to 6am (eu time)quite often, and to this day i dont know why?!?!
btw do you/have you ever traded 15 min charts?? if so how did you find them?
joelcf,
thanks for the chart.
hey, im from Asia too. im just -2 or -3hrs late vs. your time.
I just try to be up as much as i can. lol
& yes, we always hear that....
there's always a trade right around the corner.
g_j_hook@yah,
i think he meant risks taken are unique for every timeframe that he trades on: smaller risks/ stops on smaller TFs (like M5), etc...
for example, In his quote "....I am doing the small PB's on the 5min with 5 pip risk 20 target..."
I don't want to be a hero, I have made it in monetary terms, now I want to do some good in this world, this way I see everyone wins.
Quote:
I'm going to be upfront with you now, I will teach you basics here, you will make money, but if you want to be taught in a realtime enviroment I'm going to at some point in the future open a live traderoom, in there will be charts and live commentry, this I will charge for, you will get a reduced trial, if you don't like making money, then sure, don't carry on, go back to pretty charts and BS free BB talk, ye, some people are actually SCARED of making money, I will show you how to get through this too.
After all the posts about money!!?? hehe
would you buy a used car from this guy??
jon
Please don't take offence to this but hell I can't read your charts that you post. It may be because they are quite small when you post them but you have so many lines there is hardly any space anywhere.
I love it when Jarroo posts a chart. Clean and simple and one can see exactly what hes talking about. May be a good idea to pull up one of his charts and then compare to yours and decide if you really need all those lines....
yeah i agree here Billye, mabye if they were zoomed out it would be better??
again i like the posts, but cant see anything in the charts?? ( still trying to work out how them lines were drawn?from close price??)
jon
now waiting for the next 4h bar close in about 30 mins on my feed, for us/chf 4h pin and eu.us 4h pin and a 4h BUOB on the eu/gb.
lets see how they close.
jon
__________________ PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
Last edited by g_j_hook@yah, Jul 10, 2009 9:07am
Reason: typo
what do you think of this H4 pin bar? (the last one)
i quite like it and have an order placed for both this pair and eu/us.
It is choppy though like pipmyride says so i will be playing them very close initially if they break.It is to be expected in a ranging market though.
my personal fav is the eu/gb DBLHC (not a BUOB which i posted earlier)i like the confluence of the corrolated pairs.(gb/chf and gb/cad mirror this pair well.)
jon
... too quiet.
can we start the climate discussion with the new Climate Czar, ehem..
g_j_hook@yah,
how far back is the correlation that u've noticed.
what timeframes, MT4 broker?
Thanks
lol... what ? are you a police man or something!?? hehe
these are fairly new to me SC,and tyhey dont corrolate as closley as say the eu/us- us/ch but they are well worth taking note of. The gb/chf seems to be the closest in real time. i doupt it makes a difference which broker you use.?
jon
g_j_hook@yah,
hey i dont see picture perfect correlation here.
gbpcad looks like a spiked hair/mohawk? or head&shoulders,
gbpchf looks like a zigzag hair,
while eurgbp looks like a falling hair.
I was expecting something like a very visible correlation.
or i might be missing something.
Thanks
PS. i think Oanda has a correlation table. or some other broker. I'll try to find that correlation table.
squeezy, mine's triple quotes/posts.... beat that
http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation-table
thats the add. for the corrolation table, i dont know how accurate they are??
Look again at the eu/gb - gb/chf SC, the corrolation is clear! or no? most of the swings corrolate nicely
jon
well thats me for the week. nothing broke very hard today eh??!! a bit disapointing but hey, cant have it all. i still managed a profit today though. i wonder what next week will bring??
Right...Jarroo, what do think we can do as a race to combat global warming?? lol...ITS THE WEEKEND!!
jon
What do you think about the CADCHF pair? Is it call an i11b setup?
How you guys will play this setup if you go for this? I think it should be long but don't know how to enter.
All comments are welcom
hi there PippingMama, i dont think this counts as it needs to be the last bars what are IBs. these were broke by tha last two bars .
hope this helps?
jon
EDIT: Mike you are FAST!! glad you confirmed it though
cheers
hey! is that you buddy? ha, you look just like the woodcarver i imagined! hehe
but seriously.. dont burn yourself out mate, theres always a little more time than we imagine. your a damn good guy and i hope your success continues. you have made amazing progress with your trading eh!!?? i remember your first posts. it seems like a few weeks ago!! good luck and well done!!
jon
seriously and I do this for all my videos, if you could see me at my desk. There are a lot of curse words abruptly in the video. And then I say man that sucks, and delete it. You guys would probably get a kick out of it but they get quickly deleted.
I am much better at the live webinars b/c it doesn't give me time to over think and I just talk.
I will get there though. !
Mike
do we get to see an "it'll be alright on the night" video of the out takes!??
hehe
im sure its gonna be worth the wait, so i for one can be patient.
jon
Just what we wanted. A quick hard break during the first few hours of the day.
Ghous.
mornin ghous...yawl, i like this one also, i got in yest. on a 3h beob on oandas charts. i v been watching this trade develope for a while now. it was kind off it to close a nice pin bar for me eh!?
Reason:break of the daily PB
I know that many of you will skip this one but this is tradabel in my book,I'm just learning now ,after I will be very sure about what I'm doing I will tell you everyoane but for now I'm may do stupid things, let's the time say if I'm right or not
PS: take profit at +70 pips and move the rest to BE
hi mate i dont see any SL on the chart?? i assume you had one placed?? jus wondering what it was on your entry>>
cheers
jon
Yeah there was some good money to be made yesterday on multiple pairs (and today for anyone who was brave enough to hold on!) I only have 3 trades still open. Loving that GBP/CHF situation at the mo...
hi there, i feel that if price is gonna stall its gonna do it now?? lets wait n see if it breaks 1.77??
jon
Thought I was doing well with my 5x5 155pounds this morning... (ATG mind..)
oh well like so many things in life... long way to go LOL!!!
5 x 5 will take you forever to get fit mate!! it should be 5-7x with big weights 3 sets(to build muscle) and/or 10-15 with smaller weights 3 -5 sets(for definition)
long time since i saw a gym though!! lol
jon
Quote:
what % of people on here are actually trading REAL money ? just wondering as there is a lot of talk of demo accounts.
just a guess of course but i reckon its less than 20%??
I do, but only micro account, because I am still learning... But from my past experience in stocks I don't like paper trading because the lack of emotions...
So this is a cheap way to learn IMHO...
I entered EURAUD and GBPCHF pins last night and now moved my SL to +3... I like free trades
Thank you Jaroo, Ghous, g_j_hook@yah and others for teaching me (even you don't know it coz I don't post that much)
wow!! i got a mention!!! i just noticed!
cheers, glad i could help. i just pass on what im learning here myself, we got good teachers!!
jon
If you trade 5 minute charts, why did you move away from the ES. I'm in the process of moving over completely to ES trading, as I find it much easier than forex. The patterns are more consistent, and it just feels like a much more technical-oriented instrument.
Also the fact that there is a day session, makes it much easier than having this 24 hour market. I've also found that the first 2 hours of the session are the most profitable, so you're basically talking about a 2 hour-day.
I'd appreciate your, and others,...
hi DynamicFx, that was something that struck me immediatly when i recently started to watch the dow ,etc mini futures on my platforms. they look very technically neat to me!?
i cant trade them with oanda though!
jon
I liked your quote , I have just entered the market and trying to learn things .
thanks a lot. My acct is already down by 40% though.
hi mate i wasnt gonna chime in as everyone has given good advise allready , but for wot its worth, if your account is down 40%.. STOP TRADING!! NOW... (would be my advice)
go back to the beginning of this thread and your spend the time reading this and go back to demo. When u can decide for yourself when a bar is a pinbar or not and wether its a good one in a good location, AND you can impliment what you learn into your trading ( which is harder than you would think imo)
Then u might want to start risking more money. i would stay off the lower TFs also. although they can be profitable they require more experience as the dicisions have to be much faster, etc. if you are loosing money more than making it you will loose it faster on the lower TFs purly as you will trade more often.
jus my view.
good luk
jon
I'm glad you have seen it too. I've witnessed support and resistance levels being defended to the tick even on a 1 minute chart. It's quite incredible to watch, and completely different to the volatile spikes you see in forex.
I would also argue that futures trend more than forex, it just depends what timeframe you're looking at, especially oil. There will usually be a good few hours of trend in the futures every day, which is not always the case in forex.
ahha thanx.
ye iv just been looking at the oil 4h chart !! says it all for trending. it gave out about 500 BEOBs for us to get on board also !! hehe
it is something i will be watching closley from now on also. especially for clues to the moves of the yenXXX.
Entry so late because i see it a few hours after open the Daily Bar,
then i think it`s maybe better to wait the Price break the 0,7900 and set a "buy stop" at 0,7910.
I know it?s not right way, but at the time i set up the trade it was the
best (so i think), but i?m a newbie and have to learn so much.
That?s why i read this thread since a few weeks.
Sorry for my bad English.
Trade well!!!
hi pipmax, i agree with ghous and just wanted to add a side note.
if you played the break of the round number i would be carefull of entering after only 10 pips above/below the round number as this is not a good confirmation that it has broke. price often breaks the round numbers by 10-20 pips( just from the momentum of the previos move) and then falls back below/above on the next candle to close below. just a heads up
jon
james16 Chart Thread
... now all those newbies (more so than me) have to read 2000 pages just to catch up!! still it will do them a world of good im sure!!
i particularly liked the BEOB on 18/5....still didnt enter though.
i did expect a stronger break.... is the only excuse i can give myself
hehe
,respect 
